The Pentagon has provided daily updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s resistance efforts.
Here are the highlights of what a senior US defense official told reporters on Tuesday, Day 27:
A member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces takes position amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine March 12, 2022 in Irpin, Ukraine.
Russian forces are estimated below 90% combat capability for the first time
“I would like to remind that this is a combat force that they built in Belarus and in the western part of their country before the invasion, and not an assessment of the entire Russian military power,” the official said. “But we evaluated it for the first time that they might be just a little under 90% in that. And no signs, no tangible signs of reinforcements being brought in from other parts of the country, no tangible signs of foreign fighters having flown in the country… no evidence that they have brought in foreign fighters from Syria or anywhere else.
“And as for supplies, again there is no tangible evidence that they are making any effort to resupply there from outside the theater, which they are hauling in from elsewhere across Russia. But we continue to see signs that they are having these discussions and making such plans.”
“In our estimation, probably the most likely scenario is that they want to bring in reinforcements from locations outside of Russia. I would like to remind you of the tactical battalion groups that Mr. Putin has at his disposal against Russia, he deployed about 75% in this particular operation. So, I think our assumption would be that he would pull from outside the country first, but that’s an assumption and I really don’t want to go into detail,” the official said.
Asked whether troops are gathering in Belarus on the border with Ukraine, this official said: “I have nothing specific about Belarusian intentions, we are watching this as closely as we can. But nothing concrete to report on Belarusian activities on moving in.”
Forces halted outside Kyiv, frostbite now a problem, rockets fired top 1,100
Most Russian troops remain bogged down around Kyiv at the same distances we’ve heard for more than a week, the official said. “We haven’t seen any major repositioning of them around Kyiv. Again, it was static about 15 kilometers to the north, west and 30 kilometers to the east. You just don’t have it. We didn’t see much movement on their part.”
Logistical and supply problems continue to plague Russian troops, with official stating that Russia now has concerns about refueling the ships in the Black Sea.
In addition to the lack of food and equipment, Russian troops are now suffering from frostbite. “We have received some evidence that some of their soldiers are suffering from frostbite due to lack of appropriate cold-weather gear for the environment,” the official said, adding that some of those soldiers were taken out of combat as a result.
The number of Russian missiles fired in Ukraine remains above 1,100, the official said.
Servicemen of pro-Russian troops in uniforms without insignia drive an armored vehicle during the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, March 19, 2022.
Ukrainian troops on the offensive
“We’ve seen signs that the Ukrainians are now going a little bit more on the offensive,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing later Thursday. “They have defended very cleverly, very nimbly and very creatively in places that they believe are the right places to defend and we’ve seen them now in places, particularly in the south, near Khersan, where they tried to regain territory. Again, we don’t have great accuracy in tactical movements, but we’ve seen them, make that effort.”
He noted how the Ukrainians had said a few days ago they were planning counterattacks and “I think we’ve seen signs that they’re moving in that direction.”
He later said, “We appreciate that in some places they are trying to retake areas that the Russians have captured or occupied.”
Local residents walk near residential buildings damaged during the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, March 18, 2022.
The Russian Siege of Mariupol
“Ukrainians are fighting very, very hard to prevent the fall of Mariupol,” the official said. The official said Ukrainian forces had put up strong resistance inside Mariupol to the “significant number” of Russian forces that had entered the city, including Russian separatists from Donbass. The Russian troops now advancing on Mariupol are mostly forces that came south from Donetsk.
The substantial artillery and long-range bombardment of Mariupol continues, but what is new is that the US has observed over the past 24 hours “that the Russians were probably sea-fired at the city from the Sea of Azov,” where the Russians did it seven ships.
The official said the US estimated the Russian push to Mariupol to be the “southern pole” of Russian efforts to cut off Ukrainian troops in Donbass. “In order that Ukrainian forces are not … pinned down there and unable to defend cities further west, including Kyiv, Mariupol serves as an anchor for this effort, if you will, in the southern sector of Ukraine.”
“There are many significant battles going on. Ukrainians are not giving up on Mariupol. They fight hard to prevent that. I’m sure they don’t need to be reminded of the importance of this city in this whole effort,” the official said.
In the Black Sea, the official said, there were “no indications that an amphibious assault on or near Odessa is imminent and we again made no observations, at least from the naval side, we have no indications in the past 24 hours.” observed. “
The Russians have 21 ships in the Black Sea, 12 of which are surface combatants and nine of which are amphibious.
A soldier of the pro-Russian troops in uniform without insignia is seen at the arms depot during the conflict between Ukraine and Russia near Marinka in Donetsk region, Ukraine, March 22, 2022.
The invasion of Ukraine raises questions about US troops in Eastern Europe
Kirby acknowledged that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the security landscape in Europe and that this week’s NATO meeting may need to address new issues, such as whether to keep troops in Eastern Europe in the long term. “We have to think about it very differently no matter how this all ends,” Kirby said.
Kirby said he couldn’t anticipate the NATO meeting and President Joe Biden’s attendance, but recalled that during Defense Secretary Austin’s trip to NATO last week, the alliance took “steps to strengthen deterrence and preparedness” in the wake of the Russian invasion undertook, including the formation of new combat groups. “How far they exist over the long term is really going to be a decision of the Confederation, not something the United States can decide unilaterally,” Kirby said.
Noting that the US has increased its troop levels in Europe from 80,000 to 100,000, Kirby said he cannot predict the future, but “I can tell you that the Secretary wants to preserve his options to continue to unilaterally strengthen the East Flank.” He added: “We are not sure where this will lead, but the minister is convinced that the security environment on the European continent has now changed, wherever it is going. And we need to think about it very differently. “No matter how this all ends.”