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Western allies and Ukrainian officials are increasingly concerned that Belarusian troops stationed on the border will invade Ukraine to join Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces.
Belarus’ entry into the war could have wider implications for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, particularly if Russian-commanded Belarusian troops invade through western Ukraine amid fears the fighting may intentionally or unintentionally cross the border into Poland, a member of NATO, could spread.
In a video message on Tuesday, the exiled Belarusian opposition leader argued that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally and friend of Putin, had “already committed high treason” by allowing thousands of Russian troops to be stationed on Belarusian territory before he died on May 11 February 27 invaded Ukraine. 24
UKRAINE WARNS BELARUS OF PLANNING A ‘DIRECT INVASION’ TO SUPPORT PUTIN’S STRIP
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who was forced to flee Belarus after the hard-fought 2020 presidential election due to widespread protests and military repression, appealed directly to members of the Belarusian military, as well as their wives and mothers, that soldiers defy any “criminal orders” in to invade Ukraine.
“The invasion of Ukraine by the Belarusian army is a move with irreversible consequences,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “It would be a shameful stain on relations with the Ukrainian people and would further isolate Belarus from the rest of the world, to the point of the Iron Curtain, behind which Belarus would not be considered an independent state and life in the country would descend into poverty.”
“The order to bring troops into Ukraine is not only an order to send them to certain death, it is also an order to all Belarusians to give up their independence and their future,” she said from abroad. “Despite Russian propaganda, the attitude of Belarusian society to the war is very different from that of Russia. The absolute majority of Belarusians, regardless of their political preferences, are unequivocally opposed to the war with Ukraine or any war involving Belarus.”
Last month, Belarus passed a referendum in which it relinquished its non-nuclear status, paving the way for nuclear weapons to be shipped out of Russia and returned to Belarusian soil for the first time since the nation abandoned them when the Soviet Union fell, per Reuters . The West refused to recognize the vote as legitimate, while Belarus cracked down on domestic opponents. In response, Lukashenko said that if allied countries “transfer nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania to our borders, then I will turn to Putin to return the nuclear weapons that I gave away with no strings attached.”
In recent days, Belarusian railroad workers have been coordinating an attempt to sabotage rail lines to block the flow of supplies to Russian troops in Ukraine, Ukrainian railroad officials said.
A Belarusian group of hackers and activists known as the Belarusian Cyber-Partisans also reportedly hurled ransomware attacks at their country’s rail system to disrupt operations, calling Lukashenko a “terrorist” for targeting Russian “occupational forces.” allowed access to Belarus and Ukraine.
With Russian forces suffering heavy casualties since the invasion began 28 days ago and their ground efforts largely stalled, Ukraine’s defense ministry this weekend warned that Belarus was planning a “direct invasion” of western Ukraine through the Volhynia region, and assessed the risk level as very likely.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Wednesday that no movement of Belarusian troops had been detected in the Volhynia region of western Ukraine, but Lukashenko still maintained a “significant group of troops” near the border. Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko on Wednesday lamented that the Interparliamentary Union, which promotes democratic governance, still allowed Belarusian MPs to sit in the drafting committee for a resolution on Ukraine while Belarus was preparing to invade Ukraine, arguing it had no aggression given name of Belarus.
Tsikhanouskaya said that any member of the Belarusian military, regardless of rank, who follows orders to invade Ukraine will be tried by a military court and prosecuted along with Lukashenko for war crimes, while soldiers who disobey orders and lay down their arms do so failure to do so will result in criminal liability. She also claimed that any Belarusian soldiers leaving the battlefield or surrendering in Ukraine would escape punishment.
“We receive information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by Belarusian armed forces, and therefore I appeal to the Belarusian military: we know that most of you are also against a war with Ukraine,” she said. “Do not let the Belarusian armed forces lose the trust and respect of Belarusians forever. I also appeal to the mothers and wives of military personnel: do whatever you can to make sure your sons and husbands get home. Don’t let the regime take them away from you forever.”
Belarus’ foreign ministry announced on Wednesday that it would expel Ukrainian diplomats and close a consulate, although spokesman Anatoly Glaz did not specify how many diplomats would have to go and said a maximum of five could stay. Glaz said: “This move aims to end the undiplomatic activities of several employees of Ukraine’s foreign missions.”
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Belarusian Major General Viktor Gulevich reportedly resigned earlier this month as chief of the general staff and first deputy defense minister, refusing to organize Belarusian troops to take part in hostilities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. He had already been sanctioned by the British government for allegedly backing and supporting the Russians in their invasion of Ukraine last month.
Lukashenko, who has commanded the former Soviet republic since coming to power in 1994, won a resounding victory in the 2020 presidential election despite widespread allegations of voter fraud. Tsikhanouskaya’s husband was arrested in the months leading up to the election, so she decided to run in his place in protest. When tens of thousands of protesters were arrested, she fled to Lithuania to go into exile with her two young children. Lukashenko was subsequently inaugurated for a sixth term.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.