The President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, is today a guest at the European Council in Brussels at the conclusion of the NATO summit and the meeting of the heads of state and government of the G7. It was already yesterday in the city: the Rue Ducale, the street on which the US Embassy is located, is being blocked by Belgian police with horses from Friesland. It is the first time ever that an American President has physically attended a European Council in the Belgian capital. But if he pushes Europe to impose energy sanctions on Russia, the democratic president won’t find the ground under his feet. European leaders are awaiting a discussion from him in which a senior official goes so far as to define “open” but specifies that the “solid unity” between both sides of the Atlantic in the face of Russian aggression will be emphasized: “Ukraine.
also read
Others are horrified to hear the adjective “frankly” associated with an exchange between the President of the United States and EU leaders amid a Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, and lean towards less blunt words. It will be an open discussion, as “open” discussion in diplomatic language is tantamount to saying you agree to disagree.
NEW EU SANCTIONS, RUSSIAN OIL BAN ON TABLE It won’t happen tomorrow between Biden and EU leaders. But adjectives aside, it’s almost certain that a new EU sanctions package won’t affect energy. At least not now. The union, explains a senior EU official, “is a reality with multiple member states that have different visions,” and it could be useful for the President of the United States to listen to the “differing positions” of leaders.
The EU will insist on continuing international “strong coordination” on sanctions to be adopted against Russia, bearing in mind that the US is “less energy dependent” on Russia than it is. EU. The possibility of freezing oil imports from Russia “is on the table” but “depending on the different interests of member states” who disagree on the issue. So not now, but when we finally decide to touch the energy.
Some countries like the Baltics are pushing for it, but the capitals don’t agree. It could not be otherwise given the enormous differences in the energy mixes and also in the production structures of the 27: Hungary has expressly spoken out against it, but it is not alone, even if others are less clear. In any case, the senior official added, cooperation with the US on sanctions is “excellent”.
NEW G7 MEASURES AGAINST MOSCOW If there is a new sanctions package, the decision will be made at the G7 meeting, which will be held in Evere, at NATO Headquarters, after the Atlantic Alliance Summit and before the European Council. It could include an expansion of sanctioned issues, perhaps a ban on Russianflagged vessels landing in EU ports, perhaps an extension of the export ban already approved, and closing the ‘loopholes’ of previous packages. But not the energy.
Because some countries, while determined to punish Ukraine’s aggressor, may not kill their production system, which has already been severely tested by the pandemic. Therefore, the wording of the draft conclusions (the EU “remains ready” to adopt new sanctions) should remain unchanged. As was done after the Versailles summit, should the G7 wish to adopt new sanctions, the Commission will draw up the proposal, which will be examined by Coreper and then probably adopted by written procedure on the following Monday.
The threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who announced that Europeans would have to pay for gas in rubles (and thus buy Russian currency in bulk to support the exchange), seems to have made little impression in Brussels for the time being: “A treaty is a treaty notes a European diplomat we’ll see what the practical consequences will be: for now we can only take note of “what Putin said.
With President Biden, the 27 will discuss the course of the war in Ukraine and also the “international dimension”, how to increase pressure on Moscow to end the aggression against Kyiv. There is no timeline for the US President’s intervention, so the debate could focus on different issues, but it is already known that not all 27 leaders should intervene: the Council will give priority to leaders who they have not had the opportunity to exchange views with Biden at previous summits (NATO and G7).
Certainly, explains a senior EU official, the debate in attendance will also make it possible to address sensitive issues such as the risks of the conflict in Ukraine, whose protagonist is Russia, which is a nuclear power and does not act according to the rules of international law, but based on a geopolitical logic of power.
FOCUS ON CHINA It can be assumed that China’s role will also be discussed with the US President, which is already on the table of the 27 stands should participate in Beijing. EUChina relations could change if it became clear that Beijing is with Moscow in the aggression against Ukraine. It was not only China that abstained from voting on the condemnation resolution passed by the UN General Assembly, and Europe will now try to provide more clarity on the abstention line.
ENERGY, DIVIDED LEADERS Leaders will also address the situation in BosniaHerzegovina, a key country in the Western Balkans, also to send the message that this area is not forgotten, having been overwhelmed by the current war in Ukraine . The high point on the next day, Friday, is the energy discussion. It is an issue on which Member States are naturally divided, not because they are divided, but simply because they have different energy mixes, different production structures and different histories.
Views differ on how to deal with the rise in gas prices, but as with the Covid19 pandemic, positions seem to be slowly converging: each country has its own public opinion and this takes time for certain positions in countries to ‘digest’ who love the logic of the free market and who struggle to accept the fact that the war economy operates on different logics.
Meanwhile, the Commission has said it will set up a task force on joint gas purchases to put the bargaining power of the 27 ahead of the sellers, as was the case with antiCovid vaccines. In addition, it presented a legislative proposal that would oblige operators of gas storage facilities to fill them up to at least 80% by November 1, 2022 (90% in subsequent years).
GAS AND ELECTRICITY PRICE Care must be taken when decoupling the now very high gas price from the electricity price, also because any intervention can have undesirable and unexpected effects. So, in all likelihood, leaders will wait for ACER, the agency that brings together EU energy regulators, to deliver its technical report in April, before discussing it at the European Council in May.
To calm the skyrocketing energy prices, some countries are leaning towards national solutions, others towards European solutions. Because when national solutions prevail, the divergence between member states is accentuated, because those with budgetary space can help their citizens and their businesses, while those without can’t.
A theme that has already been used successfully during the pandemic and has led to Next Generation Eu. It has its own strength, but it takes time to break through.
The energy debate, which EU diplomats are predicting to be “alive” and “not easy”, could also end without conclusions, as happened at the last European Council, because it is better to have no conclusions than poorquality conclusions. The Eurosummit, which normally takes place in March, was postponed to a later Euchus due to time constraints.
Leaders are also likely to discuss the food fallout from the war in Ukraine, as both Russia and the country occupied by Kremlin orders are major producers of grain and other staple foods.
It is an issue that will become more important if the war is to be prolonged. Because if Europe risks significantly higher prices, the consequences for the countries of North Africa, large importers of grain, could be very different. With everything that follows, also for Mediterranean countries like Italy.