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(CNN) When Russia’s military launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine last month, China appeared to side with Moscow, accusing the United States and its NATO allies of provoking the conflict by allowing their security bloc to expand east.
Now, as China is being pressured by the West to condemn the Russian invasion, similar rhetoric is growing about America’s footprint in Asia.
In recent days, top Chinese Foreign Ministry officials and influential Communist Party publications have accused the US of wanting to build a NATOlike bloc in the IndoPacific, with an official warning of the “unimaginable” consequences if you do so.
At a conference in Beijing on Saturday, Chikna Deputy Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said the Ukraine crisis could serve as a “mirror” for the security situation in the AsiaPacific region.
The British Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth in the South China Sea in July 2021.
Le did not name the United States, but made explicit reference to the IndoPacific strategy, a plan the Biden administration laid out in detail last month to bolster the US role in the region, including by supporting democracy and strengthening its alliances and partnerships, including with Taiwan.
China’s criticism of NATO
Building “small circles or closed and exclusive groups” in the region “is just as dangerous as NATO’s strategy of eastward expansion in Europe,” Le said at the event at Tsinghua University, according to a version of the speech released by the Chinese Ministry of Education Foreign Affairs.
“If it is allowed to continue unhindered, it will have unimaginable consequences and ultimately bring AsiaPacific to the brink,” he said.
China’s criticism of NATO comes after attempts to portray itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine crisis, refusing to denounce Russia’s attacks on civilians while highlighting its humanitarian aid to Ukraine and denying the possibility of military support to Moscow in to have considered.
However, China’s attempt to draw parallels between US strategy in the IndoPacific and NATO’s “eastward expansion” in Europe echoes Moscow’s arguments and raises serious questions about Beijing’s alleged neutrality.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly tried to justify his concerns about NATO to justify his brutal invasion of Ukraine. Now experts say China is trying to use the ongoing crisis in Ukraine not only to reinforce its portrayal of the United States as an alleged instigator of conflict, be it in Europe or Asia, but also to warn of the consequences , when the United States and the countries of the region compete against China.
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China is “exploiting” the crisis
Washington’s emphasis on the IndoPacific comes as China pursues a more aggressive foreign policy, redoubling its territorial claims and taking a harder line in response to perceived challenges.
In recent years, China has rejected a UN Court ruling that dismissed its sweeping territorial claims in the South China Sea, while continuing to militarize its positions there and harass other claimants. It has also stepped up its threats against Taiwan’s selfgovernment, with record attacks by warplanes on the island’s air defense identification zone in recent months.
“It is not surprising that China is using the Ukraine crisis to lash out at the IndoPacific strategy,” said Li Mingjiang, associate professor and chair of international relations at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technical University in Singapore.
Li pointed to China’s “growing concerns” about the revival of the IndiaJapanAustraliaUS “Quad” Security Forum and the AustraliaUKUS AUKUS Security Pact, as well as the US’ firm commitment to maintaining its longstanding role in the region outlined in Biden’s IndoPacific strategy last month.
“The intent is clear: China wants to send this message to the US and countries in the region that the IndoPacific strategy and US security alliances could also generate similar security dynamics (as seen in Europe) with the participation of Russia,” said Li.
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That message also comes ahead of an “extraordinary” NATO summit this Thursday, where US President Joe Biden will meet with allied leaders in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine, in another sign of the surprising solidarity of the blocks since the beginning of the crisis.
A message from China to the United States and NATO
Vice Secretary of State Le’s warnings about the US presence in the IndoPacific were echoed by China’s ambassador to ASEAN at a press conference in Jakarta on Monday.
There, Ambassador Deng Xijun accused the US of “creating a set of ‘gang rules’ while claiming to uphold international order” and leading the region “down an evil path,” according to Chinese state media The Paper.
A similar tone was struck in an oped in China’s People’s Liberation Army Daily, republished last weekend on the website of the influential Communist Party magazine Qiushi, which took aim at the IndoChina strategy and stated that the formation of blocs The US is an “important reason for the continuing escalation of the Ukraine question”.
This isn’t the first time China has attempted to draw parallels between US and NATO IndoPacific strategy in recent years, and the concerns go to the heart of a key position that has brought Russia and China closer: their mutual distrust United States.
This was clarified in a 5,000word joint statement released weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, in which both expressed their opposition to “further NATO expansion” and pledged “to the adverse effects of US strategy.” to remain vigilant in the IndoPacific”.
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However, experts point out that there are major differences between NATO, a security alliance, and the US strategy in the IndoPacific, which is not limited to security but encompasses a range of policies. The United States, with its long border with the Pacific Ocean and the island nation of Hawaii, also has IndoPacific territories, including Guam.
Other nations have also increased their activities in the region to counter China’s influence. Last year, Britain sent its largest concentration of naval and air forces to the Philippine Sea for joint exercises, while Germany sent a warship through the South China Sea for the first time in nearly two decades. France also announced a plan last year to increase its maritime cooperation with the South Pacific. China has often spoken out against such actions, denouncing what it sees as containment efforts.
The Chinese stance, meanwhile, ignores the fact that US security partnerships have emerged in response to China’s own rapid military modernization, according to Drew Thompson, senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in New York, the National University of Washington Singapore.
The United States is “increasingly drawn to deeper and stronger security alliances because of[China’s military]modernization” and Beijing’s “lack of openness and transparency” with its neighbors, Thompson said.
But Chinese leaders “see no connection between other countries in the region protecting themselves from China’s military modernization” through ties with the United States, he added.
The Taiwan question
Another, much closer issue may also explain why China is willing to air its concern for the United States in AsiaPacific amid the Ukraine crisis: Taiwan.
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This was hinted at in a 110minute video meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Friday, where Xi’s concerns about Taiwan were clearly a key point for the Chinese side.
“Some people in the US have sent the wrong signal to the ‘Taiwan Independence’ forces. That is very dangerous. Mishandling of the Taiwan issue will have a disruptive effect on bilateral ties,” Xi said, according to a Biden Ministry of Foreign Affairs reading.
Analysts have drawn comparisons between authoritarian threats from Ukraine and Taiwan, an autonomous island democracy that Beijing has claimed as its own and has not ruled out a violent takeover. Earlier this month, a group of former US defense and security officials traveled to Taipei in a show of US support amid the European crisis.
This is also related to China’s broader concerns in the IndoPacific, RSIS’s Li said.
“If there is a conflict over the Taiwan issue, the worstcase scenario (for China) would be that China would not only have to fight a war against Taiwan, against the United States, (but) maybe some allies of the United States against Chinese participate,” he said.