After a 12day absence that gave rise to all sorts of speculation about his fate, Russian Defense Minister Serghei Shoigu reappeared in television footage. But that is still not enough to dispel all doubts, as the Ukrainian government speaks of a heart attack that struck him recently. The mystery remains around Russian chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, who has also disappeared from the public scene and has yet to be seen again.
Health problems precisely, expulsion for punishment given the unsuccessful course of the war in Ukraine, or even a move by Moscow to confuse enemies, in the frantic search for any signs that indicate the emergence of cracks within Putin’s circle? Each hypothesis seems legitimate in the analysis of those who strive, following the example of Sovietera Kremlinologists, to predict Russia’s movements by penetrating its opaque power system. An exercise that until now, as then, does not give the desired results.
Shoigu, one of the 3 men with the keys to launch nuclear missiles, appeared in military uniform in images released by the Ministry of Defense as he presided over a meeting dedicated to the arms budget. No date is indicated in the video, but what suggests that it was a recording of the last few hours is the fact that the minister refers to a meeting he had at the Finance Secretariat on Friday. Shoigu says orders and deliveries are on schedule, “despite the difficulties of the moment” due to Western sanctions on Russia for its military action in Ukraine. “The priorities are precisionguided longrange weapons, aviation equipment and maintaining the combat readiness of strategic nuclear forces,” the minister said.
On Thursday, the Kremlin announced Shoigu’s participation in a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and members of the National Security Council, denying any allegations about the 66yearold minister’s alleged punishments or ill health. “Shoigu spokesman Dmitry Peskov said has a lot to do at the moment, there is a special military operation in progress, and for him it is not the time for media activities.”
The image described in a Facebook post by Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko is different, according to whom Shoigu suffered a heart attack in midMarch. Agentstvo, an independent Russian news site, also previously cited an anonymous source reporting the minister’s heart problems. However, there is still no news from Valery Gerasimov, who has disappeared from the radar since March 12. A very unusual situation for a chief of staff in the midst of a war, during which one would expect him to show his face to inform the Russians of the progress of operations. On March 24, the Pentagon said Gerasimov and Shoigu no longer responded to American attempts to contact them after the last interview, which took place on February 18, nearly a week before the invasion.
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