by Claudio Del Frate
The result is (also) an increase in average life expectancy (+9 years compared to 1990). Child mortality is also falling: -60% compared to thirty years ago
On November 15th the population of planet earth will reach 8 billion people. This was calculated by a UN projection based on population growth in recent years. At a time when wars, food shortages and climatic emergencies are all adding up, the fact that the world is shrinking can seem like trauma. Instead, the United Nations points out that the eight billion population ceiling is the fruit (also) of the significant improvement in some health standards. For example, the collapse in child mortality on a global scale. In short, this record is also kind of good news why
The line of demographic growth drawn by a report released by the UN says that after the 8 billion mark set on Nov. 15, there will be 8.5 billion in 2030 and gradually up to 10 billion and 400 million on will be at the end of this century. The dynamics of growth vary greatly depending on the continent. The Far East and Southeast Asia will continue to be the most populous areas on earth, but the fastest growth will come from Africa (Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria). As early as 2023 we will experience a historic event: India will be the most populous country in the world for the first time with over 1.4 billion people, even if it slightly overtakes China.
But the novelty highlighted in the UN report is different. Population growth is motivated on the one hand by lower infant mortality and on the other hand by longer waiting times. In other words, fewer people around the world die later. One number effectively captures this jump: The average life expectancy on Earth had reached 72 years and 8 months in 2019, with an increase of almost 9 years compared to 1990. Without Covid, the number would have been even higher. In 2050, this indicator will reach 77 years and 2 months.
At the same time, the female fertility index fell: the UN always reports that every woman gave birth to an average of 2.3 children in 2021, compared to 5 in 1950. In this case too, the average data contain profoundly different realities. Some areas, such as sub-Saharan Africa or Latin America, have high youth fertility: 10% of employed women under 20 are concentrated here, which still poses serious problems related to health care and child rearing. The report also predicts that those countries where fertility is declining but the working-age age group (25-64 years) is the most resilient will have greater opportunities for economic growth in the coming years. Asia, South America and the Caribbean belong to this macro area.
To expand the field to include more data, it must be said that infant mortality has also fallen significantly: UNICEF reports that in 2019 this index fell (though still worryingly) to its lowest level in history: the deaths of children in in the first 5 years of life was 5.2 million (almost always preventable according to Unicef) compared to 12.5 million in 1990. A drop of 60%.
In general, right after fertility declines, the population growth curve on Earth will tend to flatten out by 2100. The consequence will be that more and more countries will experience an overall aging of the population, again with a very unbalanced picture: in thirty years the over 65 year olds will represent almost 26% of the population in Europe, but in 2050 only 4.6% % in Africa southern.
July 15, 2022 (change July 15, 2022 | 16:29)
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