Joe Biden’s trip to the region is an “unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of the Middle East,” a senior Israeli official told reporters last Tuesday, a day before the US president landed at Ben Gurion Airport.
Israeli leaders’ superlatives continued after Biden landed. Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the visit “historic,” and President Isaac Herzog went a rhetorical step further, comparing Biden to the biblical Joseph “on a peace journey from Israel to Saudi Arabia, from the Holy Land to the Hijaz.”
But the results of the trip were pedestrian, to say the least. And in some ways, the week should be a sobering wake-up call for Israel.
“The greater the expectations, the greater the disappointment,” said Yoel Guzansky, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Hours before Biden flew to Jeddah on Friday, the announcement Israel had been waiting for finally surfaced. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Aviation Authority said all civil airlines could now fly over the country. The Saudi statement made no mention of Israel at all, but Lapid nonetheless called it “the first official step toward normalization with Saudi Arabia.”
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Biden cast the announcement in a similar light, calling it “a big deal…the first tangible step toward hopefully broader normalization of relations.”
But the Saudis, publicly at least, were quick to water down that notion. “This has nothing to do with diplomatic relations with Israel,” stressed Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, briefing reporters as Biden walked home.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud speaks during a press conference after the end of the Security and Development Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Saturday July 16, 2022. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)
Despite the over-the-top messages pouring out of official Israeli channels — perhaps unsurprising ahead of an election — it should have been clear to everyone that Biden’s visit wasn’t really about us.
“Biden had a key objective, which was to try to mitigate the global energy crisis by increasing production in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” said Moran Zaga, a Gulf region expert at the Mitvim Institute. “Anything beyond that, in my view, was a kind of decoration, an attempt to divert attention to other places that fit Biden’s policies — to liberalization, to peace, to rights, to Palestinians.”
“Even as rumors about the airspace opening up, the question was, ‘Okay, what else?'” Zaga said.
That didn’t stop Israeli leaders from doing whatever they could to inflate the scale of the visit to Israel itself. Lapid and Biden signed the Jerusalem Declaration during the trip, which a senior Israeli official told journalists was “a historic declaration that shows the uniqueness of what we have between our countries.”
Lapid even had the document framed and hung it himself in the cabinet meeting room on Sunday.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid hangs the Jerusalem Declaration signed by Israel and the US in the Cabinet meeting room in Jerusalem, July 17, 2022 (Haim Zach/GPO)
But there was nothing really new in the statement, which pledged allies to work together to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, to further discuss Israeli-Palestinian relations, to expand the Abraham Accords, and to fight anti-Semitism — all of which happened anyway.
Israel did what it could to keep Biden properly occupied while he was in the country and helped him obfuscate the true purpose of his trip to the region. Herzog awarded him a Presidential Medal of Honor, the same award given days earlier to Czech President Miloš Zeman.
Biden also waved to the athletes at the opening ceremony of the Maccabiah Games and took part in a zoom call with leaders from India and the UAE.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with Holocaust survivors Giselle Cycowicz (bottom right) and Rena Quint (bottom left) at the memorial hall of the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum in Jerusalem, July 13, 2022. (Menahem KAHANA / various sources / AFP)
That’s not to say there weren’t some poignant moments. Biden’s extended one-knee conversation with two Holocaust survivors at Yad Vashem brought him back to his younger political figure, a tactile, caring man with the ability to connect with the public.
His acceptance speech for the Medal of Honor was heartfelt and heartfelt.
President Isaac Herzog presents the Israeli Presidential Medal of Honor to U.S. President Joe Biden on July 14, 2022 at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
But the hype surrounding the trip and the small developments in Israeli-Saudi relations went beyond the typical liberty government spokesman at presidential visits. The message may even have harmed Israel in Saudi eyes.
“I think Israel has done damage here,” Guzansky lamented. “They have inflated the Saudi issue with all sorts of leaks and briefings. It was not historical, not in Israel and not in Saudi terms.”
“I think it reflects a lack of understanding in Israel of where the Saudis stand, what their sensitivities are, what their interests are,” he continued.
“You have not added anything to Israel’s diplomatic efforts,” Zaga agreed.
Right now, Riyadh has no reason to give Israel — or the US — any gifts. All gestures were made as part of a tough deal with the US.
After a relative decline in regional status following the war in Yemen and the aftermath of the 2018 assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudis – and in particular de facto leader Mohammad Bin Salman – have been keen on maintaining their place at the head of the Arab world recapture .
In this file photo taken on October 10, 2018, a protester dressed as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (C) with blood on his hands protests outside the Saudi Embassy in Washington, DC, demanding justice for missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (Jim Watson / AFP)
And they were the big winners of the trip and got what they wanted.
“First, after Biden’s visit,” Zaga said, “he kowtowed to them, he agreed to accept the Saudis as what he describes as protecting American interests.”
“Secondly, as part of the visit, Saudi Arabia hosted this major inter-Arab summit. And once again she is the country that hosts, that takes the initiative, the leader, the driver.”
The Saudis weren’t afraid to flex their muscles either. When Biden allegedly began to intimidate MBS over the killing of Khashoggi, the Saudi prince fired back by asking about the killing of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh and the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq.
As Biden flew home, Israel wondered how close it really is to normalizing with the Saudis.
After last week it doesn’t seem to be that tight anymore.
Despite intelligence cooperation and converging interests, the current relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not analogous to the relationship between the State of Israel and the Emirates prior to the Abraham Accords. While the UAE positioned itself as a leading international center for culture and trade, Israelis have been present at multilateral forums and international competitions.
The view of Saudi Arabia from an Israir flight on November 8, 2020. (Israir/Twitter)
Saudi Arabia is not the same kind of country. There is not the same cosmopolitanism or familiarity with Jews and Israelis. And the Saudi role as guardian of the two holy mosques means they must be far more cautious about open ties with Israel without finding a solution to the Palestinian issue.
Other regional developments this week were not particularly encouraging for Israel either. The much-discussed regional security alliance against Iran appears to be far less advanced than Israel would have hoped. Mentions of the framework during the visit were extremely vague, far from a Middle East NATO.
Even the United Arab Emirates, the jewel in the crown of the Abraham Accords for Israel, delivered an illuminating message during the visit. “The UAE is not part of an axis against Iran,” said Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash, adding that Abu Dhabi is considering bringing its ambassador back to Tehran. The same spirit has been evident in the Gulf in recent months, as Arab countries coped with the reduced US presence in the region by de-escalating to Iran.
The need to express excitement about a US President’s visit is understandable. But Israeli leaders would do well to remember that countries will shape their policies toward Israel according to their own needs and interests. Three countries may have moved forward with normalization, but other potential partners are eyeing the benefits of the Abraham accords while keeping a wary eye on Iran.
Meanwhile, the Israelis will have to content themselves with a view of the kingdom from 30,000 feet.