In the first round of the MLB Draft, the Chicago Cubs picked right-handed pitcher Cade Horton from the Oklahoma Sooners with the seventh pick.
After spending the last two weeks telling you that I was 98% confident the Cubs would take a position player, the Cubs took a pitcher who was skyrocketing the draft boards towards the end of college baseball season would have.
Horton was a two-way player in high school who played both third base and pitching. (He also played quarterback for the football team.) He was due to be selected in the second round of high school but was not called up because of a steadfast commitment to play for Oklahoma.
Unfortunately, Horton’s career with the Sooners got a delayed start due to Tommy John’s surgery, causing him to miss the entire 2021 season. He started the season as the Sooners’ third baseman and didn’t take the mound until March 29. He struggled back up the hill for the first few starts but that’s to be expected when he comes back from surgery.
But as the season progressed, Horton improved. His fastball started out hitting 98 mph and was in the 94-95 range. He also has a slider that counts as a plus-plus and was clocked at 90 mph. Horton also worked to develop a cutter that made his four-seam fastball that much better.
All of this came to a head in the College World Series, where he was the ace of the runner-up Sooners team. In his four starts in June, Horton topped 40 batters and walked just four, posting a 2.81 ERA.
Horton has a curve and a change, but he hasn’t had to use it much in college baseball. The Cubs must be confident that they can convert at least one of those two pitches into at least one middle pitch. Otherwise, he becomes vulnerable to left-handers.
The Cubs’ statistical models on Horton have undoubtedly found him to be a spin-rate monster. His fastball has tremendous spin and his slider is just unfair. He’s also a design-eligible sophomore who won’t turn 21 until next month. The statistical models that assess age versus level would certainly be favorable to Horton.
As a two-way player and high school quarterback, you can probably guess that at 6’1 inches tall, 211 pounds, Horton is a great athlete. This is sometimes overlooked with pitchers, but some of the models say it can make a big difference.
The big problem with Horton is his inexperience. If he’s a late bloomer who really made a step forward by the end of the 2022 season, this is a great pick. Horton has shown the pitches and size and athleticism to be a No. 2 pitcher in the majors. This of course depends on him developing a third pitch. He’s got third and fourth pitches, but the Cubs need to think they can make them better.
This is certainly a bet on statistical models and the belief that the pitcher Horton was at the end of the season is the pitcher he will bring forward. It’s also a bet on the Cubs’ pitching coaches’ ability to get the best out of him and the coaches’ ability to keep him healthy.
Is that an overdraft? Maybe. Horton was expected to be somewhere in the 12-15 range, so the Cubs reached a bit. But he wouldn’t have been in the second round, and if the Cubs were really unconcerned about the other players available at seven, then it makes perfect sense to gamble on a high-headed pitcher.
And to be sure, that’s a gamble. Horton has a few question marks with his injury history and inexperience. But these question marks can also be positive factors. If Horton continues to build on his dominating performance in the College World Series, this will be a solid pick.
And I ask you all to welcome Cade Horton to the Cubs family. And hope that it will end up at Wrigley sometime in the near future.
Here’s Horton setting a record 13 hitters in the CWS finals against Ole Miss. If you think Horton can build on what he shows here, you can see why the Cubs wanted him.