Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, analyzes how China and the countries of the Middle East and the post-Soviet zone might act in the face of the Ukraine crisis
The Russian military operation in Ukraine has created a space for instability around the world, says Russia in Global Affairs magazine editor-in-chief Fyodor Lukyanov.
Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the magazine Russia in Global Affairs, since 2012 Chairman of the Presidium of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
As the US carries out actions to isolate Russia, the success of this policy “depends largely on the extent to which China will be willing to go along with it,” the expert said in an interview with the weekly Argumenty i Fakty. Under these conditions, one might expect Washington to promise Beijing something to withdraw its support for Moscow, but “In all statements that you make in Washington, you speak only of threats”.
“I think this is not happening partly because the United States actually sees China as the main threat and its main future rival and therefore does not want to strengthen its positions in any way. In the US, there is virtually a bipartisan consensus that China must be contained and denied development aid. If the government tries to get China on its side to work against Russia, it will provoke internal resistance from those who believe it […] the main enemy is Beijing,” he explains.
“Americans are trying to influence China the same way they tried to influence Russia before, exclusively through pressure. […] I think such a tactic will hardly work with China,” emphasizes Lukyanov.
Referring to the importance of China’s support for Russia in its sanctions mitigation measures, Lukyanov argues that these are not just sanctions, but “an act of economic warfare, very harsh, you could even say a new kind of.” world war. ” . “And indeed, for Russia it is absolutely crucial whether China is involved in this or not. We must not hide or delude ourselves: if for some reason China decides that it is more profitable for it, the US in this If you fall, the situation in Russia will continue to deteriorate, there is no doubt about that,” he stressed.
Lukyanov repeated this in this regard China’s actions “is guided solely by its own interests”. “Support for Russia is also related to its interests, including long-term ones: its assessment of how the world will develop and which position is more profitable to take,” he said. “China believes that confrontation with the US is inevitable. It’s already happening and it’s only going to get worse. And China needs Russia to be on its side in this confrontation at least a safe rear guard and ideally part of this confrontation,” he said.
Regarding Russia’s position if China continues to resist Western pressure, Lukyanov warns that Moscow is at risk of becoming dependent on Beijing. “Before the Ukraine crisis, its acute phase, Russia had some room for manoeuvre. Now there is none.” As a result of this support, “Russia will be heavily dependent on China in many respects, both economically and in technological and military matters,” predicts the expert. This dependency would also limit Moscow’s room for maneuver in Asia and more result in it “supporting China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.” It would also lead to growing alienation between Russia and India, a country already “migrating to the US”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. /Photo: Kremlin Press Office (Gettyimages.ru)
“No it will be possible to achieve a total boycott against Russia»
At the same time, there are other actors who might be interested in the failure of Western sanctions against Russia.
According to Lukyanov, if Russia resists and achieves its goals in this “extremely difficult and unprecedented for itself” situation, “it will be a very serious change that will catalyze a process that started some time ago”. «It is the loss of the monopoly of the United States and the West in world affairs. So why should the Arab countries, Latin America and Asia take sides here?” asks Lukyanov, assuming that “a total boycott of Russia will not be achievable.”
In particular, the analyst points out that the Persian Gulf countries “absolutely have their own game.” After years of destabilizing Saudi-US relations, the region’s traditional focus on Washington is “a far cry today from what it was 15 or 20 years ago.” This, coupled with Moscow’s growing influence in the Middle East, makes the Gulf states less willing to unconditionally accept Washington’s policies, despite showing no signs of a “complete” break with the US.
“An Era of Instability”
For the area of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Lukyanov predicts that “an explosion is to be feared everywhere” after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
«The world has entered an era of instability that not even everything we observe can compare to during the pandemic, during the upheavals of 2000 and 2010,” emphasized the expert.
As an example, the analyst cited the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, a self-proclaimed Armenian-majority republic embedded in Azerbaijani territory, which was already the scene of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war conflict in the fall of 2020. In this case, Ankara must be considered, “because Turkey is now the key power in this part of the world,” he warns, noting that Yerevan has already signaled its willingness to normalize relations with neighboring countries.
“We see how, against the background of what is happening in Ukraine, Armenia is trying to use the situation to normalize relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. That’s how they try to make sure, because they’re also not sure what will happen to Russia and Karabakh if things don’t go according to our wishes in Ukraine,” says Lukyanov.
Likewise, the expert believes that “there is no reason to believe” that the post-Soviet countries “adopt and follow the Russian line” regarding Ukraine and the Donbass republics.
“In my opinion, these countries should not be obliged to recognize the measures that Russia is taking for its own reasons, just because we are partners,” he claims, demanding not to put the CIS countries “in a position where they can have to choose between loyalty to Moscow and what they categorically don’t want to do and think is wrong.”
“But we can and should hope that they will not engage in any anti-Russian configuration. And even demand, “he concluded. (RT News)