by Paolo Valentino
According to experts and observers, the Russian President is still very solid. But one wonders if the time in Moscow is ripe for regime change
was a voice of the escaped Sen, that of Joe Biden on Vladimir Putin who can no longer remain in power. Another of the many mishaps that have marked the political career of the current White House chief. Just as in 2009, at the signing ceremony of the health care reform law by Barack Obama, the then Vice President enthusiastically said: That’s a damn great result. But this time it’s not just the uncontrolled tendency towards verbal anarchy that has always characterized Joe Biden. And although American spindoctors have been struggling for the past twentyfour hours to explain that the president had no intention of invoking regime change in Moscow, in reality the sentence with which he ended the Warsaw speech seems more like confirming what Biden did and his company hope their hearts. ‘Administration.
a realistic hope? Not at the moment, Putin is still very solid, the answer from experts and observers. But what are the possible scenarios for a possible departure of the tsar? Here we analyze three of them and assess their dynamics and probabilities.
The latest news about the war in Ukraine
impeachment proceedings
Paradoxical as it may seem in a country where the power of the modern tsar is almost absolute, Russia is a presidential federal republic with a constitution that even provides for impeachment. In fact, Articles 92 and 93 of Russia’s Basic Law provide that the president can be removed from office for treason or other serious crimes.
It was to be the Duma, the lower house of parliament, that was to initiate the process, which was then to be confirmed and completed by the Supreme Court. Finally, the Federation Council would decide within three months whether to approve or oppose the removal. But the Duma won’t do that because it’s under Putin’s full rule, explains Washington Examiner’s Christopher Tremoglie, an expert on Russia’s constitutional system.
However, according to the scholar, things could change if popular discontent increases and some parliamentary formations decide to take advantage of the discontent and find a bank in the Kremlin itself.
The coup
Written the scenario of the palace coup in Russian and Soviet history. From the tsars to Khrushchev to Gorbachev, when Russia enters a smutnoe vremya, a period of unrest, it is the boyars who end up getting rid of the sovereign. Brian Taylor, a professor at Syracuse University, is convinced that the war and above all its catastrophic development have increased the chances of a Putin against Putin.
But squaring the circle is difficult. We need the coordination of the political elite, the army and the FSB, the services which I don’t see at the moment, Mark Galeotti told Repubblica. In reality, Putin’s control of the siloviki, the men of power, most of them his comradesinarms from the St. Petersburg days, is solid at the moment and a testament to everything.
The loyalty of the security apparatus is not in question: he would be in danger if the quarrels noticed that he no longer had the support of the services and at the same time there were mass protests by the disaffected population, says analyst Abbas Gallyanov, who was and is now the speechwriter for Putin works as an independent political advisor. And he adds: If they see him weakened enough and are convinced that they can do it without risk, then the quarrels could betray Putin. But not for tomorrow.
Someone even mentions the scenario of the snuffbox with which Tsar Paul I, the son of Catherine the Great, was poisoned: when he proposed to attack British India together with the French, the aristocracy considered him out of his mind and solved the fail.
street protest
In these cases, there can be sudden accelerations Pulitzer Prize winner Tom Friedman explained to our newspaper . Conservative figures estimate that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers were killed. Also, they must return the remains to their families. Or they never bring her home, which is worse. What would happen if, in ten days, a month, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets and the police couldn’t contain them?
The scenario of the road forcing the tyrant to leave Ukraine model 2014 is not plausible. But the crunches in the form of widespread protests and antiwar sentiment are already being heard, and the continuation of the military campaign combined with the increasing deterioration of living conditions could act as a catalyst.
Finally, economist Sergei Guriev, who worked on Putin’s team before he went into exile in Paris, recalls citing an old Russian proverb: In the end, the refrigerator beats the television. And with the money to keep the populace happy, the Russian president appears to have exhausted the other strands of consensus building.
What if she leaves him…
Assuming Putin left voluntarily, who could take his place? The usual suspects are on the list: Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. And then there’s the name in pectore, that of Alexei Dyumin, the current governor of Tula, Putin’s former security chief, who considers him more than a loyalist. But we’ll talk about him another time.
March 28, 2022 (Modified March 28, 2022 | 09:46)
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