[Publié le 22.07.2022 à 9:40, mis à jour à 11:20 avec réaction outrée de la Chine]
The geostrategic rivalry between Japan and China is not new, and periodic resurgences of political and territorial disputes – both historical and contemporary – regularly fuel diplomatic relations in the form of rollercoasters that are mostly miserable. This is despite some appeasement efforts spearheaded by Shinzo Abe at the end of his term, efforts recognized (sparingly) by Xi Jinping when he offered his condolences following the July 8 assassination of the former Japanese prime minister.
The implicit message sent by Russia invading Ukraine
However, Japan just published a “white paper” on defense this Friday, which explicitly names and analyzes the new threats, on the one hand from Russia with the war in Ukraine, and on the other hand from China with the increasing pressure it is exerting on Taiwan. And how the two are related…
So, when it comes to Russia, what worries the Japanese MoD is that invading Ukraine will send an implicit message that will encourage other countries – understand: China – to believe that “an attempt to unilaterally changing the enforced status quo is acceptable”. The Department of Defense devotes an entire chapter to this topic in its annual report.
Geopolitical shift of the world by domino effect
In this report, the Japanese Defense Ministry also confirms the analysis (made by many observers before it) that Russia may feel weakened by this conflict, which could lead it to “further strengthen its ties with China”.
Alongside escalating national security threats, including the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, the white paper discusses China’s intimidation of Taiwan and the vulnerability of technology supply chains.
Opinion campaign to increase the budget of the Japanese army
It should also be noted that the release of this report, which details the government’s security concerns, is timely as it prepares the Department of Defense’s budget proposal, which is due next month, with the aim of garnering public support for an unprecedented increase of military funding, which the ruling party wants to double over the next decade.
Therefore, among the specific threats to Japan, the report underlines that Moscow could increasingly resort to nuclear deterrence, which could lead to an increase in its activities near Japan, where Russian nuclear submarines regularly operate. Not to mention the threats from North Korea…
Russian and Chinese bombers fly together near Japan
Japan joined Western sanctions against Russia and has since seen an intensification of the Russian military presence near its territory. In May, mostly Russian and Chinese bombers flew together near the archipelago.
The 2022 white paper also goes into detail about Taiwan, noting that “since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan has attempted to further increase its self-defense efforts” in the face of the threat Beijing poses to its territory.
Japan, which despite a steady increase continues to have the lowest military spending as a percentage of their GDP among the G7 countries, is looking to shift gears.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (PLD, nationalist right) is working on it, which aims to double the national defense budget so that it reaches 2% of GDP.
A long-term goal, because Japan, according to its pacifist constitution, which was drafted and came into force shortly after the Second World War under the American occupation of the country, is not supposed to have an army in the strict sense, and its military investments are theoretically limited to defense means.
But time is running out for the PLD and other parties: They want to revise the constitution and today have a sufficient parliamentary basis to do so, but this process promises to be lengthy and complex.
Outraged reaction and “strong dissatisfaction” from China
Beijing’s response was quick. This Friday morning, China formally protested Japan’s warning of escalating threats to its national security. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin, with this defense report, Japan not only exaggerates “the so-called Chinese threat,” but is guilty of meddling in China’s domestic politics by criticizing China’s actions against Taiwan.
“Japan’s new defense white paper indicts and denigrates China’s defense policy, market development and legitimate maritime activities,” Wang Wenbin said in his daily press briefing.
The spokesman for the Foreign Office also said:
“China has expressed its strong dissatisfaction with this report and has strongly opposed it and made strong reproaches to the Japanese side in this regard.”
Wang noted that the defense white paper mentioned Tokyo’s plan to increase Japan’s defense budget and develop its counterattack capabilities.
“We urge Japan to immediately end this malicious practice of exaggerating security threats in its neighborhood and finding excuses to increase the power of its military arsenal. »
Which is not entirely irrelevant given that the ruling party’s ambitions in Japan are to bring the armies’ budget to 2% of GDP, thereby aligning with NATO standards.