Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Tony Finau and Corales champion Chad Ramey will be among the celebrities to be discussed in Tuesday’s Draws and Fades.
You’ll forgive the recurring theme, but the Texas winds forever demand respect and attention. The Invisible Force is the main defense at TPC San Antonio in Hillsbrad. Last year’s scoring average of 72.475 was boosted in each of the first two rounds with averages north of 73. When the wind died down a bit and the best of the field played on, the score fell well below average. But the message is clear, wind wins.
Seriously gusty breezes extend into Wednesday of this week and then things are expected to calm down for Thursday’s opening round. The machine starts up again on Friday. It will likely continue to blow enough to cause a break over the ball at the weekend, but wind is the hardest element to project that far ahead. It’s a head-turning experience. Rain is not expected and daytime temperatures will climb into the 80s so conditions will be seasonal.
The entire Oaks Course is littered as usual. In a common convention to balance the wind, greens (studded with Poa trivialis), averaging 6,400 square feet, are kept to run no longer than 11½ feet on the simpmeter.
The primary rough extends to 2½ inches. That’s half an inch up from last year, but the gnarliest hay found around the edges of the property will be up to six inches tall. Because of this, there is a perception that hitting fairways is of paramount importance. While golfers who distinguish themselves as ball strikers have an advantage, it’s more about hitting “enough” fairways on a hole where the field has been averaging just 7.70 per round for the last year.
The stock par 72 is 7,438 yards. It is 56 yards down with tee shots of 42 yards on the par 3 third and 14 yards on the par 5 14th. Spieth’s splits in fairways hit (T49) and greens in regulation (T57) defy him for third place in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. The simple translation is that he optimized his chances when he was accurate.
En route to 18-under-270 for the two-shot title, Spieth led the field in both GIR to par breaker conversion and par 4 scoring. He was also a co-leader in the par 5 standings with 10 birdies and six pars averaging 4.375 on the par 5s. It’s a statistic that’s almost always important, but this is emphasized on more difficult courses with corresponding par 5s, which ranked T7 among all courses in the 2020-21 super season. Mike Glasscott’s Horses for Courses on Tuesday pays more attention to this.
Spieth is Spieth, flashing his buttery touch throughout the tournament, finishing fourth in Scrambling and sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting. Was he putting more pressure on his short game and putting than recommended? Yes. Does he have the confidence and ability to overcome this if it happens again? Moron.
As of Monday afternoon, Spieth is one of the 22 golfers in the field of 144 golfers qualified for the Masters next week. If the winner at TPC San Antonio isn’t already qualified for the first major of the season, he’ll be last man.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton summarizes and previews each tournament from multiple perspectives. As planned, look for his following posts.
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Sleepers, draws and fades
THE WEDNESDAY: Select them preview
SUNDAY: Medical Extensions, qualifiers, reshuffle, Rookie Ranking
* – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Selection for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, also released Tuesday.