From the prolonged and “nightmarish” standoff to the defeat of the enemies by either power. the scenarios possible on the progress of war in Ukraine are multiple and according to the former CIA chief David Petraeus, who gave an interview to Corriere della Sera, the success or failure of the Russian conquest will depend on “which of the two camps will be able to refuel, rearm, replace losses and build in new capabilities”. But predicting how things will play out now is difficult because “a number of scenarios range from long stableA bloody nightmare (with slow and tiring Russian advances to the southeast while Ukrainians continue limited counterattacks around Kyiv, Kharkiv to the east, Mykolaiv to the southwest and elsewhere) to a scenario where one of the others takes over the attack windward and fend off enemies”.
At the moment, afterformer CIA chiefit seems “slightly more likely that Ukraine will develop an advantage, given the determination, ingenuity and creativity on display, on top of the fact that they are ‘playing at home’. But it is unwise to rule out the possibility that Russia may be learning from the myriad mistakes that have been made, and in spite of other terrible losses of life and assets wear over time, Ukraine’s air defenses and resources. So on the one hand, the Ukrainians could push back the Russians at least in parts of the country, although Petraeus says he doesn’t foresee that outcome at the moment. In that case, Ukraine might be able to ” to launch multiple counterattacks, repel the Russians and limit the damage caused by missiles, missiles and bombing,” especially if she would receive “sufficient critical resources from NATO countries. They need drones, powerful antitank missiles, ammunition and humanitarian aid.” Resources like these, the former CIA chief told Corriere, “can tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor and benefit her at the negotiating table.” This, Petraeus admits, “my hope is that some countries bordering Ukraine will help with planes, silently, without announcing it”.
On the other hand, the opposite scenario, i.e. the recovery of the RussiaA tactical success this will boost Russian morale and provide some battalions to engage in this very tough battle. This will favor the grueling Russian advance into Lugansk province and possibly Donetsk. Indeed, it is possible that once Mariupol is captured, the Russians will “consolidate control of the east coast from Crimea to Lugansk and perhaps capture the rest of Donbass.”
Another possibility is that President Zelenskyy submits to it referendum the possibility of abandoning Donbass and Crimea in order to end the conflict. In such a case, the former CIA chief told Corriere della Sera, it is possible that the Ukrainian president “will receive support if Ukrainian cities continue to be bombed,” while Russian President Putin may realize he is unable will be able to achieve “much of what he hoped for.” At the moment, no scenario can be ruled out and the course of the war is yet to be predicted.
Now that spring is beginning and it is raining, the danger that the vehicles will remain breaded should not be underestimated: “That could prevent the Russians from breaking through, especially around Kyiv.” But that would make it longer damn stable where is Ukraine. “For how long? Weeks, maybe months, concludes Petraeus.