"Starvation Will Increase By 13 Million

These dead under the rubble of Ukraine are only the first. The others will be far from the theater of war and will number in the millions: killed by starvation. What is being triggered is a food crisis that will last well beyond the end of the conflict. Wheat is the staple food for 35% of the world’s population. This grain that is still in the Ukrainian silos and that nobody sows.

Subtle: “There will be no next harvest. For some countries it will be devastating”

Previously, five million tons of wheat left the ports of Odessa and Mariupol every month. Today, hundreds of merchant ships are blocked in the Black Sea by the Russian Navy with their cargoes of corn, wheat and barley. And in many countries, the war in Europe will mean above all a food shortage in the coming months. It’s not just a matter of rising costs plaguing Europe, it’s a matter of survival.

THE BARN OF EUROPE. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat: it collects about 85 million tons annually and exports almost half of it. Fifth is Ukraine: the two countries are responsible for 29% of global grain trade, almost 20% of corn exports which is used to make animal feed and 80% of corn and sunflower oil exports. Russia ranks first in the export of fertilizers, which are fundamental to agriculture: second in the world (first is China) for the production of nitrogen fertilizers and phosphates, second in the production of potassium (7th .2 million tons per year).

THE MOST AFFECTED. Europe can withstand the downturn in the grain market. But other countries especially developing countries pay more than others. Sudan imports 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The same applies to Yemen and Syria, which have already suffered through 7 and 11 years of war. Egypt and Lebanon also depend on Russia and Ukraine for 80% of their needs. 40% of the wheat consumed in Libya is Ukrainian.

THE EFFECTS. According to Oxfam which deals with humanitarian emergencies 155 million people were malnourished worldwide in 2021. According to Maurizio Martina, deputy director general of the FAO, the number of people affected by malnutrition will increase by 13 million every year because of the war in the “granary of Europe”. According to other observers, even more. “A 1% reduction in fertilizers means a reduction in the food supply for over 3 million people writes American political scientist Ian Bremmer we observe a baseline in which the number of malnourished people in the world doubles to 500 million and suffers from hunger increases from 9 million last year to 50100 million in the next two seasons ».