It is no secret that Russia is struggling with enormous difficulties on the ground, as is the fact that the blitzkrieg has become a war of attrition. According to unofficial estimates, Putin lost more men and equipment in a month of war in Ukraine than in ten years of war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Yesterday it was confirmed that two Russian battalions previously stationed north of the capital have withdrawn to Belarus. Moscow’s new strategy in the war in Ukraine begins with a repositioning of troops on the ground. After weeks of fighting in the city northwest of the capital, Irpin, Bucha, Holomel have returned to the control of Kyiv forces. There, the Moscow vanguards often got caught in the crosshairs and suffered heavy losses: now the tactics seem to leave the localities too exposed to counterattacks and artillery fire. However, around Kyiv, the Russians hold their positions in the eastern sector and some strongholds in the south, from where they can hit the capital’s buildings with termite balls, causing large fires.
The fate of the war is decided in the southeast
All of Putin’s military efforts are now concentrated in the Donbass. Given the failure of the first offensive to capture the capital in a few days and the impossibility of an armed attack on Kyiv (a siege of the capital would be a bloodbath), the maintenance of troops around the largest city in Ukraine (and also Kharkiv, the second largest). city of the country), would now have the sole purpose of keeping the Ukrainian forces blocked and thus preventing them from approaching other fronts.
For his part, the chief of staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said today that Russian units in the country are “disoriented” and “weakened” after meeting stiff resistance from local forces. “The command of the Russian occupation forces is trying to compensate for the dwindling combat potential of enemy units with indiscriminate artillery fire and rocket attacks, thereby destroying the infrastructure of Ukrainian cities,” the update reads. The staff also said that Ukrainian forces continued to organize effective defenses across the country and recaptured two settlements Kamyanka and Topolske from the Russians.
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However, the fate of the war is being decided at this stage in southeastern Ukraine. Moscow announced a few days ago that military operations in Ukraine will focus on the region east of the Dnieper, the river that geographically divides Ukraine in two. To this area the last Russian reserves of selected units would march to try to break the blockade on the offensive. The key is still Mariupol, the last obstacle to the maneuver to unite Donbass with Crimea.
Moscow’s new strategy
Putin could manage to split Ukraine by coming to the negotiating table with a situation similar to that of the partition of Korea seventy years ago. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence himself has warned the whole world that Russia is attempting to implement what it calls the “Korean scenario” after failing to capture the capital and overthrow the legitimate government. The Kremlin’s priorities are Ukraine’s east and south after its offensive has largely stalled. According to various analysts, if it were able to connect this territory and create a kind of crescent moon under its control, Russia could stop a socalled “special operation in Ukraine.
The offensive only seems to continue in the Donbass to occupy villages claimed by the separatist republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. According to David Petraeus, former chief of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and former head of the CIA, it cannot be ruled out that “Russia will get back on its feet, picking up steam in the Southeast and possibly in the Northeast. When Mariupol falls, as seems tragically predetermined despite its heroic defences, Russia will have an excellent port from which to resupply troops in the southeast. A tactical success continues in an interview with Corriere della Sera which will boost Russian morale and to engage some battalions in this very hard fight, which will favor the arduous Russian advance in Lugansk province and perhaps in Donetsk the Russians”.