As the international community witnesses a new phase in Russia’s war against Ukraine, Cold War 2.0 between the United States and China has once again reached a peak in tensions, forcing leaders Joe Biden and Xi Jinping into their fifth talks since living together . as heads of state.
The reason this time was Taiwan, due to the possibility of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting the island, which China regards as a rebellious province. In a call lasting more than two hours, Xi repeated words used at a virtual summit in November, saying Americans could get burned if they play with fire while supporting Taiwan’s independence sentiments.
The MP plans to visit the island in August. If carried out, it will be the visit of the highest American official since Republican Newt Gingrich, who held the same position as Pelosi, went to Taipei in 1997.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said such a trip by the second in line to the American throne would amount to a violation of sovereignty. “Those who play with fire will only be burned, I hope the American side sees that clearly,” Xi said of Biden, according to Chinese media.
Out there
According to the White House, Biden said he stands by his Taiwan policy. In other words, formal respect for the idea of ”One China” guiding relations between the countries, but also support for Taipei. He said he opposes “unilateral initiatives” that would destabilize the region, which serves both Xi and Pelosi. According to US media, the US Congress is working on the hypothesis that the trip will take place.
Biden himself admitted last week that the trip was “a bad idea”. The Democratic leader faces low popularity and midterm elections in November when seats in the House and Senate will be renewed, rather than just dealing with a new crisis.
The same goes for Xi, who is set to be reappointed for an unprecedented third fiveyear term as leader of the Chinese dictatorship in the same month as the US election, but has faced a range of problems ranging from difficulties in maintaining his Covid policy zero systemic economic risks in the country, leading to rumors of internal dissent within the Communist Party.
On the other hand, having the popular Taiwan issue in the spotlight helps steer public opinion elsewhere. Earlier this month, Beijing faced a rare public rally in Henan where residents went to a Bank of China branch to protest problems accessing their deposits.
China, Midland
The US has been in an escalation of support for Taiwan since Cold War 2.0 against the rise of China was launched by former President Donald Trump in 2017. Since then, trips by US officials have become frequent, but at lower levels. Attacks are invariably met with incursions by Chinese military aircraft or naval drills across the Taiwan Strait.
Such military actions have also intensified independently over the past two years, leading Taiwan to believe that the Chinese invasion could come at any time. Given the difficulties of the terrain, there are practical doubts, as the annual Han Kuang training held in Taiwan tries to explain.
But a blockade is more feasible, although it carries with it the same constraint on Beijing, namely the US obligation to defend Taipei and risk war between the powers. In the Chinese press, even other seditious nationalists were arguing for the country to shoot down a plane with Pelosi, which obviously doesn’t seem to be on the agenda. But that the visit will prompt a military response seems inevitable.
In recent days, reinforcements of fighter jets from Russia’s flanker family have been unveiled at Longtian base in Fujian, a province targeting Taiwan across the strait and giving its name to the country’s new aircraft carrier.
Despite the diplomatic disposition, the US kept its military muscles up to speed. The US Navy also announced on Thursday the deployment of the aircraft carrier group led by the USS Ronald Reagan in the South China Sea, another hotbed of rivalry with Beijing.
The message is clear: the American position that the sea, which occupies 85% of the area occupied by the communist dictatorship, is essentially a place of free navigation. Chinese claims are based on the militarization of islands and atolls, which the UN ruled out in 2016 as valid.
The bulk of China’s imports and exports pass through these waters, and Beijing sees the move by the US and its allies as a way to keep the door open to future blockades.
Speculation has surfaced in the Chinese press that the Ronald Reagan might be tricked into crossing the Taiwan Strait during a possible visit by Pelosi to deter further overt Chinese action. One would assume Biden wouldn’t since he opened the door to speak to Xi.
However, tensions remain high. Xi is an ally of Putin and has already been warned by Biden not to provide Russia with a line of economic oxygen. It was no use: China only increased purchases of hydrocarbons from Russia, helping to keep Moscow above the waterline even under sanctions.
The case of Ukraine is being cited by the US as a model for what can happen to Taiwan, although the cases are very different. The economic interdependence between the US and China is also an important factor in risk mitigation.