Ukrainian forces have so far managed to prevent initial pressure from Russia while retaining control of Kyiv and other major cities. But they remain massively superior and superior. And Russia is now introducing heavier, more destructive weapons and increasingly striking civilian infrastructure, after an initial focus on military targets, officials said.
But Western officials now expect Russia to step up heavy weapons bombings in Ukrainian cities and potentially march with “tens of thousands” of troops, a US official said. After all, officials warn, the Ukrainian army is likely to have a shortage of supplies needed to sustain the battle.
The United States has delivered hundreds of Stinger missiles to Ukraine in the past few days, including more than 200 on Monday, according to a U.S. official and Congressional source. But the United States and NATO have made it clear that they will not deploy troops to defend Ukraine.
“Cruel Military Mathematics”
Ukraine’s will to fight “expands this,” said a senior Western intelligence official. “But the brutal military mathematics of this will eventually come into force, in the absence of any intervention, in the absence of any fundamental change in the dynamics.”
For Ukraine, whose military forces and civilians show no signs of capitulation, the war seems poised to turn into a grim struggle for survival in the long, uncertain future.
The numbers are already bleak: Russia has lost approximately 3% to 5% of its tanks, planes, artillery and other military assets in Ukraine – compared to Ukraine’s loss of approximately 10% of its capabilities, according to two US officials familiar with the latest intelligence. .
According to a source familiar with intelligence, Moscow has relied heavily on its more modern precision cruise missiles, which severely impairs Ukraine’s military infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to burn supplies of Javelin missiles fired from the shoulder.
In recent days, Western security aid has crossed the border into Ukraine, according to defense and intelligence officials, although they declined to provide details on how much, exactly what kind or how it reaches hostile Ukrainian forces.
Public statements by Ukrainian officials suggest that this is not enough.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in a conversation Wednesday that Ukraine needs additional arms supplies “now,” Kuleba tweeted.
“They need bullets. They need bandages. They will need fuel. They will need ammunition, in addition to humanitarian support to provide medical care, maintain hospitals for both combatants and civilians in pain, “said a senior intelligence official for Ukrainian supplies.
“And again, they will need a lot of ammunition and weapons, because the Russian forces are both numerically and qualitatively superior,” he said.
Fear of civilian casualties
In addition to crushing Ukraine’s military, US and other Western officials fear that the siege tactics of Russia will result in heavy civilian casualties as Moscow seeks to eventually take over the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
While the first few nights of the Russian campaign focused on military sites, the last three have seen rocket, artillery and rocket attacks on many civilian areas, where there may be administrative buildings but no security equipment.
CNN was able to confirm attacks in Irpin, near Kyiv, as well as in Mariupol, Borodyanka, Kharkiv and Kherson.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield has accused Russia of importing weapons into Ukraine banned under the Geneva Conventions.
“We have seen videos of Russian forces moving extremely deadly weapons to Ukraine, which has no place on the battlefield. That includes cluster munitions and vacuum bombs – which are banned under the Geneva Convention, “she said.
A senior defense official said Tuesday that the United States cannot prove that cluster munitions or vacuum bombs were used by the Russian military.
“We will probably see an expansion of what we have seen in the last 48 hours, which is already a great deal of damage to civilian infrastructure – intentionally or unintentionally,” the senior intelligence official said. “The level of violence will increase. The number of refugees will increase. The number of civilian casualties and civilian casualties will increase.
The Russians are turning to heavier forces
Of course, the Russian army’s offensive faces many problems – some of its own actions, officials say.
A 40-kilometer column of tanks, armored vehicles and towed artillery located north of Kyiv is “at a standstill”, a senior defense official said on Wednesday.
The official said the United States estimates that there are a number of factors that appear to have slowed Russia’s movement toward Kyiv, including fuel and food problems, effective, “firm resistance” from Ukrainians, and potential moral problems in Russia’s ranks.
But the official warned that the Russians would learn from their mistakes and adapt.
The Western intelligence official said that a week after the war, the Russian military seemed to realize that its initial approach to Ukraine was problematic, relying on the use of lighter units that were more mobile but less able to survive.
“I think part of what you’re seeing is that they’re catching up, seeing that it’s time to deploy heavier troops,” the official said. “I think our concern is that they seem to be introducing heavier forces now, with more armor, more distant artillery, heavier weapons, which are not only more destructive in nature, but, frankly, are more – a little precise. “
Social media and open source intelligence, as well as videos and other information published by Ukraine, suggest that many Russian troops were unprepared or even uninformed about the true nature of the mission they were sent to carry out. Based on this open source report, Western officials believe troop morale, at least among some ground forces, is very low, officials told CNN.
It could also slow Russia’s progress, officials said. Perhaps equally significant are Ukraine’s efforts to announce Russian casualties and allow captured Russian soldiers to call relatives at home – efforts that could inform the Russian population about the war being waged on their behalf abroad.
“They [Russia] they must prevent Russian combat losses from being known to their own internal audiences in a way that they have in any other conflict in which they allegedly did not participate, “the Western intelligence official said.” And they will make great efforts inside to prevent that word from going out. ”
Estimates of Russian casualties vary; Ukraine said on Wednesday that 6,000 Russians had been killed or wounded, while US intelligence sources said the estimate was closer to 2,000 or 3,000.
CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Kylie Atwood and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report.