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It won’t be the summer of records as many had hoped in June after a start to the season that far exceeded expectations. In July, mainly due to the new peak of Covid, airport chaos and inflation, our compatriots’ travel intentions cooled down and some cancellations occurred. But after two years of pandemic, the figures recorded so far and the figures expected for the next two months still bode well for the Italian tourism industry, which, if it does not reach the levels of summer 2019, could still be very close.
An Italian summer
The latest data comes from the Observatory of Tourism Confcommercio, created in collaboration with Swg, which estimated at the end of July that 27 million Italians went on vacation between July and September, 88% to national destinations, mainly to the sea (44%). ) and in the mountains (15%), but with a good rest also of the art cities, which together with the small villages reach 21% of the preferences. «They are moving averages, but we can say that we are at values very close to those of 2019 – explains Confcommercio Tourism Manager Alberto Corti. – This year, Istat recorded 31.4 million Italians checking in at tourist accommodation. The intent data we identified in June led us to speculate that we could exceed that number and hit 33-34 million arrivals by the end of the season, but now I think it’s more reasonable to approximate the 2019 data or estimate maybe even a little less.”. The observatory provides the mood of Italians, the desire to travel, which fell slightly in July, mainly due to two factors, explains Corti: the increase in Covid cases and a fall in consumer confidence, with over 50% of respondents expressing pessimism about the country’s economic situation It’s not that Italians stop traveling, but perhaps they prefer to reduce the number of trips or their duration.
The Return of the Aliens
Cooling down aside, the summer of 2022 confirms the prospects of a return to normality in all destinations. Federturismo also estimates around 30 million Italian arrivals in Italy or abroad between June and September, while Federalberghi speaks of over 34 million compatriots traveling. Estimating the number of foreigners arriving in Italy is more difficult. According to Federturismo, between June and September, visitors from abroad will have 25% more visitors than last year: an excellent recovery (albeit still below the level of 2019), especially for the benefit of cities of art, which have seen significant increases since Easter increases , and some seaside and mountain resorts of greater value, explains Federturismo President Marina Lalli. “Foreigners have returned in large numbers, mostly Americans, Britons and Arabs,” says Lalli. – Our fears about the lack of Russians and Chinese, who are not particularly relevant in terms of numbers, but matter for the average spend, are behind us ». In fact, Global Blue has found that in the five “queens” cities of summer (Capri, Porto Cervo, Taormina, Portofino and Forte dei Marmi) the average revenue is 1,600 euros, or 30% more than before Covid. Room sales are also providing encouraging numbers, with a 26% increase in June over the same month in 2021.
predictions and fears
At the start of the season, Federturismo forecast to end the summer with a 15% growth in arrivals between June and September, but it is likely that this target will be exceeded, even if it will not reach the level of three years ago.
Expectations are also good for the next two months: up until two weeks ago, 60% of the rooms nationwide were already booked for August (compared to 33% in the previous year), with peak values of 72% in the seaside resorts. Of course, the situation is not brilliant everywhere: “Destinations that work a lot with foreigners and cities of art have excellent results, with high prices that can also cover the additional costs – specifies Marina Lalli. “On the other hand, the destinations that host mostly Italians travel on AC because our compatriots are more affected than foreigners by the inflationary issues that are pushing some people to cut vacation time or spending budgets.”