There is a dilemma plaguing allies. It is taking shape just as real negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appear to be gaining momentum in Istanbul. He brings it to the table of the western powers Joe Bidencalls the call with the leaders of United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy. With a rationale that can be summed up as follows, and which was soon circulating at the top of European diplomacy: “Putin must sell his people a victory. It is unlikely that we can accept that. The fear is that the tsar intends to force his hand on the status Crimea and Donbass. That it will not settle for an agreement on a “special autonomy regime that would appear to the world as a grievous defeat of Moscow’s ambitions. In short, it is feared that he is preparing the May 9 parade celebrating the annual victory over the Nazis to announce something Zelenskyy cannot digest.
Let me make it clear that a lot is happening on the Eastern Front. Led by Erdogan, the two enemies publicly admit for the first time that they are willing to make some sacrifices. The Russians are clearing the table with the concept of “denazification” and are generally open to accepting a path that will lead Kyiv albeit before longEuropean Union.
The Ukrainians clearly say that they will not join it Born and open to the option of lengthy negotiations for the two disputed Russianspeaking regions. Going even further, Zelenskyy’s chief negotiator suspects a mechanism that would lead the possible interposition force, consisting of international citizens the ten countries, including Italy, under the aegis of the UN to intervene with weapons and soldiers in the event of Russian aggression and the to close sky of Ukraine at the same time.
Positive signs, a basis for negotiation that should not be underestimated. But the allies are initially skeptical. A little because Washington continues to favor Putin’s attrition and seems poised not to endorse a deal anytime soon, fearing a message of impunity over Moscow’s expansionist goals will get through. Partly because the tsar continues to alternate promises and bombs. That’s what the US Secretary of State says Anton Blinkenwho points to the distance between Putin’s “words” and “what he does”: “I don’t really take it seriously,” is the summary.
It is the diplomatic translation of Biden’s arguments. For the US president, the Russian leader’s investment in the war has been huge he reminds partners and that’s why there are fears he won’t agree to end the game with a substantial surrender, albeit disguised as a triumph, to to sell him to public opinion Russian. And how would Westerners react at this point, given the strains on Crimea, Donbass and Odessa?
It really is the dilemma. The invocation of the “Quint” format then becomes an opportunity to reflect on what to do today to avoid being faced with this scenario tomorrow. And this is exactly where opinions differ. Joe Biden urges to step up supplies of arms to the Ukrainian army. He urges allies not to give up on sanctions and avoid “relaxing” on the extremely rigid stance that has stifled Moscow’s offensive plans. When the time comes Boris Johnson, the terms become sharper: “We will have to be relentless in the answer”. And therefore: guns, lots of guns and “sanctions, sanctions, sanctions.
However, it is not the German position. Olaf Scholz fears that the gas crisis will slow down the German upswing. For this reason, he even calls for a deescalation to be evaluated on the front line of the punitive measures that have already been decided: If Putin were to follow the words with facts that is the sense of his argument the West should think about relaxing its grip. A sign of weakness for London and Washington.
That is not the French position. Emmanuel Macron has less urgency to contain the energy crisis thanks to nuclear power. And he seems determined to pursue the humanitarian corridor for Mariupol in these hours albeit without results for the time being.
As for Mario Draghi, the approach is clear: on the side of Ukraine, which is not opposed to sanctions and is pushing for a search for a “ceasefire”. This does not imply too much bargaining power, on the contrary: it is the way to ask Putin to sincerely respect the commitments and a useful act to contain the humanitarian catastrophe. He could already be on the phone with the Russian head of state if the two diplomats manage to leave the final contact details.
In addition, a visit by the Prime Minister to Berlin could soon be made official in order to meet Scholz in person for the first time in Germany.