The aftermath of the war in the European country is having a major impact on the German economy, particularly noticeable on energy issues, but this working team, which is advising authorities in Berlin, now sees a greater danger.
Experts have drastically lowered their economic forecasts for this year, as they only expect gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.8 percent. Last November, they estimated increases at 4.6 percent.
According to expert forecasts, German gross domestic product will fall again in the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the country’s economy grew by 2.9 percent, after a decline in 2020, the first year of the corona pandemic. the covid-19.
The updated economic forecast is associated with great uncertainty, it said. If the conflict in Ukraine escalates and Russian energy imports are cut off, things could get worse, they predicted.
Sachverständigenrat Berlin Volker pointed out that the risk of recession was considerable.
For her part, Monika Schnitzer, also from this group, pointed out that Germany is heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies, so that an interruption in these supplies carries the risk of a deep recession and increased inflation.
Therefore, such a team advised to immediately seize all means to arm themselves against a disruption in the energy supply of the Slavic country and end German dependence on them.
On that day, the government declared an early warning state, the first phase of a gas contingency plan.
Russia requires gas supplies to Western Europe to be paid for in rubles. Germany and other western countries are refusing it so Moscow could stop the delivery.
Before the start of the conflict on February 24, industrial production was experiencing supply shortages due to the difficulties caused by Covid-19.
The influential group of economists from Frankfurt, Hesse, is therefore particularly concerned about Germany’s dependence on Russian gas.
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