by Andrea Marinelli and Guido Olimpio
The United States and Britain suspect that Moscow’s announced “reduction of activity” in the Kyiv and Chernihiv sectors is a deception: Putin’s would be a pause disguised as a retreat. The scenarios of strategists and secret services
The great skepticism. That is the title of the current military phase. The United States and Britain, along with many allies, suspect that Moscow’s announced “reduction of activity” in the Kyiv and Chernihiv sectors is a ruse. In her opinion, it’s a move to buy time, lick her wounds, take on wards that are exhausted and worn out by losses. It is therefore not a question of a concession by Putin according to the thesis but of necessity: a pause disguised as a retreat, a move accompanied by unit rotations, as the arrival of 2,000 Russian soldiers from Georgia and a thousand mercenaries from Georgia confirms Wagner , as well as a few hundred Syrians, says the BBC, with excellent wages. According to the Ukrainian government, there are 14 recruitment centers across Syria — an involvement the Pentagon has always been wary of.
The latest news about the war in Ukraine
Numerous developments are cited to confirm suspicions about Moscow’s intentions, starting with the incessant bombardment of Kharkiv, Chernihiv and the capital itself: the regional military administration claims that this happened on the night that activities in the Kyiv area were “reduced”. At least 30 rockets rained down, hitting residential areas and infrastructure. In Chernihiv, the mayor says the city continues to face a “colossal” attack. “This is another confirmation that Russia always lies,” Mayor Vladyslaw Atroshenko told CNN. “They say they reduce the intensity, but in reality they increased the intensity of the attacks.” They are barrage and cover shots for the reorganization maneuvers, but also a way of affirming the ability to destroy: you are our hostages, it is them Message of death coming from Moscow.
In addition to recording the attacks, Zelensky’s strategists and collaborators also formulate possible scenarios.
1) A troop movement from Moscow to the eastern sector, where the resistance has achieved significant successes (in Sumy).
2) A push into the southern sector, where Mariupol continues to hold despite daily martyrdom: On Wednesday, among other things, an EU office and one of the Red Cross were hit. According to the observers, the plan is always to pocket the Ukrainian contingent in order to then have an advantageous position. Added to this is the creation of the MariupolCrimea corridor. Furthermore, Putin’s general staff has listed the region along with the everhammered Donbass as a priority in the special operation. This was reiterated today by the Ministry of Defense via Tass, specifying that the joint forces in Kyiv serve this purpose. Any military statement in the quadrant could be used in reference to negotiations, but also simply to affirm a fait accompli (nonnegotiable).
3) The tsar keeps the enemy in doubt, but forces them to be on guard to protect the capital and tries elsewhere.
4) Here option C or D could emerge it depends on the calculation with the Kremlin pursuing an obvious goal: Ukraine incomplete, without real access to the sea, without strategic economic areas, reduced in territory and always exposed long ranges. Rocket systems, rockets and cannons are sufficient and can still be protected by a security circuit: the logistical effort is lower even with large areas.
Can this risk be avoided? In the west, the offensive party is gaining ground because so it is said Zelenskyy’s army not only does not lose, but can even win. The British and the Americans, sources in London say, would point to Putin’s defeat on the pitch. However, to get it, Kyiv needs a decent arsenal. Therefore, the demand for weapons that can turn the picture of this conflict begins anew: tanks, fighters, various artillery, multiple missile systems, antiaircraft shield, everything necessary to launch a real counteroffensive. It’s a very different device from the hybrid a mix of regulars and guerrillas that stopped the army in the first month of the campaign: the target doesn’t seem to be around the corner.
Western politicians are consulting intelligence agencies, now with greater awareness after accurately predicting the invasion, but caution is advised when reading events. The same intelligence service was convinced and had reported this to Congress that the Ukrainians would be defeated in a few weeks: it would be useful to know today’s verdict on the status of the resistance fighters. The pounding of news even from open sources gives us a negative picture for the Russians: hungry, cold, without spare parts, unmotivated, disorganized, with dozens of officers killed, vehicles burned.
In short, the tsar must do without the triumphal arch in the heart of Kiev. And that’s one side of the coin. At the same time, he can decide who dares to criticize him at home? that having destroyed part of the opponent’s infrastructure is still a victory. Maybe once he gets oxygen, he’ll order another attack. On the other hand, Zelenskyy will be able to claim that he did not wave the flag of surrender and went into exile, as the Americans themselves suggested, believing he had no escape. We are in complete uncertainty, but we are not mistaken in saying that many in this tragedy have often made a mistake in “reading” and forecasting.
March 30, 2022 (Change March 30, 2022 | 18:51)
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