Initial jobless claims edged up after hitting a 50-year low as employers remain reluctant to downsize in the current competitive job market.
The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the key metrics from the press versus the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26: 202k vs 196k exp and revised 188k last week
Ongoing Claims, week ended March 19: 1.307 million vs. 1.340m expected and revised 1.342m last week
Weekly jobless claims edged up for the first time in three weeks, but rose only marginally from multi-decade lows hit just last week. At 188,000, the number of new jobless claims last week marked its lowest level since September 1969. And ongoing claims, which track the total number of people claiming ongoing benefits from regular government programs, also fell precipitously, hitting the mid-point of the year just over 1.3 million. March. The last time he reached this level was in December 1969.
While weekly jobless claims data has been volatile, reports over the past few months have shown a sharp drop in the number of people who have become unemployed. While the churn rate has risen – and last rose 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in February – turnover between jobs has also been high, with workers broadly confident they will be able to continue after leaving their jobs previous positions to find a new role.
However, the relatively low number of new jobless claims belies the fact that there is still pressure on employers, who are still struggling to find enough workers to meet demand. However, some of that deficit has gradually been filled, especially as jobs have grown for 14 straight months, according to monthly nonfarm payrolls data from the Labor Department. Jobs growth is expected to extend this phase in March in the forthcoming monthly jobs report due on Friday.
The story goes on
Consensus economists expect the nonfarm payrolls to rise by 490,000 in March, based on Bloomberg data. While this would slow from February’s 678k surge, it would still represent a monthly gain well above pre-pandemic trends. And the unemployment rate is likely to fall to 3.7%, improving to its lowest level since February 2020.
“Rapid job growth in March would put the job market on track to return to pre-pandemic employment levels this June,” Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, wrote in an email on Wednesday. “The prime-age labor force ratio is on a similar path, just 1 percentage point below pre-pandemic levels.”
During the survey week for the March jobs report, or the week including the 12th of the month, jobless claims fell to just over 200,000, roughly in line with the pre-pandemic 2019 weekly average.
Other recent reports have also pointed to another solid month of March jobs growth. On Wednesday, ADP reported that private payrolls rose 455k in the past month, a hair’s breadth above consensus expectations. This was also the fourth consecutive month of private sector employment growth of over 400,000.
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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck
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