Concerns about the lack of rain in the western part of the corn belt are expected to continue until midAugust, according to international forecasters Monday (8), leaving the market volatile and concerned about the actual size of the new North American crop.. should take over. According to WeatherTrends 360, last week was the fourth warmest on record for the month.
The trend is for temperatures to remain fairly high, particularly in the western and central parts of the belt, exceeding 38°C. The night temperatures are also quite high, which makes the location of the fields at these locations even more difficult.
“Hot weather combined with gusty winds quickly dried out the soil (…) The drought deepened in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, eastern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota, according to data compiled by the Monitor da Seca were,” reads a notice from WeatherTrends 360.
In the images below from the North American Institute of Meteorology, it’s possible that the period through August 13 will see belowaverage precipitation and temperatures across most of the Corn Belt.
Map: WeatherTrends 360
“Rainfall should be a bit more general in the second week of August in the middle, but the west will continue to receive only erratic rainfall. It is likely that drought conditions will deepen or widen in this area,” the institution informs.
On the following map from the Farm Futures portal you can see that there are many yellow markers where the harvest is considered regular dark and light green for good or excellent conditions and some red ones showing very poor harvest. And the reds are actually in states further west of the corn belt, like Missouri, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Map: Farm Futures
“Some of the corn crop in this area (Missouri) is already being removed from the fields, the rest is dying. Most hectares are zero. There is some irrigation but it is difficult to get the water. I tried to grow in 31 years. Or maybe I should say, the worst crop I haven’t grown,” a Missouri farmer told the American portal. With soybeans, “the crop is struggling to survive. We’re hoping for some rain or it’ll end up like corn.”
In Wisconsin, the farmer reports that any rain that comes now for the corn comes late.
In the afternoon of this Monday (8), at 17:00 (Brazilian time), the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) releases its new weekly crop surveillance report and the market expects stability or even a slight decline of 1% in the index of soybean and corn crops in good or excellent conditions. However, last week’s report surprised with a slight improvement registered for soybeans.
Thus, the peak of the “weather market” remains in place and maintains the high volatility in price action in Chicago seen earlier this week.
Also coming this Friday, August 12 is the USDA’s new monthly supply and demand bulletin, with market expectations pointing to a drop in productivity in both oilseeds and grains, making traders even more concerned about the impact of the climate to understand and the size that the new American crop will attain.