Less than two months after the polling stations open, with a week left before the official start of the campaign, the presidential race begins Brazil is undoubtedly one Sprint to two between the incumbent President, Jair Bolsonaroand the former head of state and leader of the Labor Party (PT), Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. While Lula’s lead in the polls was considered almost irrecoverable just a few months ago, Bolsonaro’s tendency to recover seems to have been strengthening more and more for weeks. All the numerous polls, even those conducted on very small samples, in limited areas of the country and by telephone, show Lula an advantage of between 6% and 16%, but the average distance tends to decrease all the time, increasing the possibility of a victory left leader in the first round on October 2nd. In none of the scenarios is there a story for the third wheel, the leader of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), Ciro Gomescredited between 9% and 7% percent and with declining prospects.
For the Professor of International Politics at the University of Rio de Janeiro (Uerj) and TV Globo commentator, Paul Velascoheard from Ilfattoquotidiano.it, the recovery of Bolsonaro is a scenario envisaged due to the enormous resources committed by the government to the payment Benefits to rain for large sections of the population. “Bolsonaro’s recent growth has a lot to do with the recognized benefits: the 40 percent increase inAuxilio Brazil (similar to basic income) the rich fuel bonus to taxi and truck drivers. Not to mention the ability to negotiate a reduction in excise duties to reduce fuel costs. These are measures that voters check in their newspapers as soon as they leave the house and have a huge impact on the election. This is the advantage of those in power who can manage the public machinery to direct resources and be able to benefit from them in elections,” says Velasco.
The premiums used to support families’ incomes fell as a result of the increaseinflation, which have been growing for over two years, will be paid out starting today, and when citizens get the money in their hands, expect voter support to continue to rise. “The support he was assured of by Parliament, which passed the law, was also fundamental – says Velasco – reform of the constitution and allowed the allocation of extraordinary extrabudgetary funds to be able to pay “. The law in question, approved on July 1, is the subject of investigation by the Court of Auditors. The standard recognizes it Emergency by the end of 2022. A necessary condition for the state to provide inflation protection benefits with a total value of over 41 billion real (approx. €7.4 billion). Without this step, the government would effectively be violating both tax liability lawwhich imposes a ceiling on public spending, both right to vote, which prohibits the granting of economic benefits in the election year. The accounting judiciary wants to see clearly the strategy adopted by the government to increase spending. However, the impact of the investigation is negligible from an electoral perspective.
And the fact that the vast resources allocated to debt “will have an impact tax bomb on the accounts of the country that will explode in the hands of Bolsonaro or Lula, depending on who wins the elections”. Meanwhile, according to Velasco, there are also other elements that will favor Bolsonaro’s recovery in the polls. “Unemployment is falling and this too is something citizens experience intensely every day. The economy is also showing signs of recovery. If the good economic news continues to pour in, many citizens may decide they don’t want to change tack. Especially the many people who have been swayed by economic frustrations and pushed by them to evaluate a vote for Lula that has left a picture of well-being for the populace. According to Veloso, the current scenario was largely foreseen by Lula and those responsible for his campaign. “The ex-president was already counting on having reached the highest point of appreciation and was already thinking about losing votes, towards the center or towards Bolsonaro.” At the moment, preferences appear to be shifting towards Bolsonaro, an element that is also consolidating the trend Extreme polarization of the electorate before the elections.