Air travelers aren’t heading for a soft landing just yet, but there’s a big change happening in the industry ahead of the all-important Labor Day travel weekend.
It will be a welcome change for many people who have been trying to return to their places after two years of Covid-related lockdowns and restrictions.
It will still take some time for the change to take full effect, but now is the time to start preparing.
That’s because a new report by Hopper showed US airline ticket prices fell 25% in August (to an average of $286 per ticket). Air travelers shouldn’t sit back and relax just yet, as Hopper expects airfares to start rising again in September and October.
Looking ahead to the Thanksgiving through Christmas holidays, Hopper estimates airfare will continue to rise to $368 per ticket.
Several factors are driving prices down
Why are travel customers getting a break from rising airfares in August? It’s a combination of factors, reports Hopper.
“Prices this summer have been boosted beyond normal seasonal airfare increases by high fuel prices and pent-up demand from two weak summer seasons and by traveler demand peaking in the summer earlier than a normal year,” the company said. “Flight prices fall seasonally from late August to mid-October as demand eases after the peak holiday months of May, June and July.”
“The drop this year is larger than usual due to unusually high summer prices and an earlier spike in demand,” Hopper added. “This fall, seasonal demand and jet fuel prices are the main drivers of air fares.”
To get the best deals, aim for the best itinerary “sweet spots” over the next few weeks (particularly for short breaks in August to take advantage of falling airfares that month).
“For those planning to travel domestically in September, plan to book by mid-August for the best deals, while October travelers can expect to book in the next six weeks,” reads in the report. “Prices are lowest three to six weeks before departure date and increase rapidly in the last three weeks before departure.”
International travelers should book four weeks in advance of their trip and “expect best prices between now and a month before departure this fall,” Hopper advised.
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travel softening?
Another major reason for the drop in airfares this month is lack of demand, which has helped drive prices lower.
“Demand for air travel has also been subdued for two reasons: First, constant flight delays and cancellations made flying a nightmare, and lost luggage was a huge problem,” said John Taylor Garner, CEO and founder of Card Curator. “Consequently, travelers are fed up. The second reason is that most people who have been looking forward to their first trip since Covid restrictions were lifted have already made their trips or booked their summer holidays.”
While all major US airlines, including American (AIR), united (UAL) and delta (DAL), along with low-cost carriers like JetBlue (JBLU) and southwest (LUV) that lower fares, travelers should also take advantage of any airline award discounts accumulated.
“Now is a great time to redeem awards for air travel,” Garner told TheStreet. “However, make sure you first use any flight credit, coupons or travel bank received from canceled flights during Covid before redeeming any flight awards.”
These types of loans don’t last forever and will soon expire. “They also act as cash and you can use them to fully or partially offset any ticket purchase,” Garner added.
Travel tips for August
Americans want to travel before the busy Labor Day weekend has to get moving, travel experts say.
“The good news is that there are a few things you can do to increase your chances of finding a great deal,” said Matt James, founder of Visitingly.com, a travel guide blog.
Be flexible with your travel dates right from the start.
“If you can fly during the week instead of at the weekend, you might find a better deal,” James said. “It’s also worth flying to another airport. If your destination has more than one airport, compare fares to see if one is significantly cheaper than the others.”
It’s also important to keep an eye on airfares in the weeks and days leading up to your trip.
“If you see a fare that’s significantly lower than what you saw, it’s worth booking right away,” James said.