“Mastering the Uncertainty”. It is a broad subject and it is also the title of the book published by Mathieu Agelou, who took advantage of the confinement linked to the Covid to write it in 2020. We met him the other day at Gua with his parents so that he could introduce his book to us.
Mathieu Agelou, who are you?
“I’m a kid from Gua, where I started my studies that led me to a PhD, ie 8 years after BAC, at the school now called Jules Ferry. I am currently working at the Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission (AEC) ‘.
Does your book have an academic character?
“It’s a popularization book. Perhaps not quite a book for the general public, but also not a book that would only be aimed at specialists, quite the opposite.
“What is the subject of your book?
“It is a book about statistics and probabilities, and its aim is to show their use in scientific method, for the acquisition of knowledge, and as an aid to decision-making in a situation of uncertainty. This in many areas, scientifically, medically, in sociology, in politics…
In short, wherever we deal with multiple data.
What are statistics?
“Statistics is data science and based on probability theory. Therefore, statistics can be viewed as applied probability.
A simple example. Winning the lottery jackpot represents an extremely small chance that can be calculated theoretically: it is a probability. On the other hand, statistics can be created about all the draws that have taken place.
How did you articulate it?
“I have dealt with this in four main chapters. First of all from a historical point of view, because probability and statistics are far ahead of our time.
Blaise Pascal would be one of the pioneers by first becoming interested in probabilities in gambling. Then banks and insurance companies got interested, for example to calculate life annuities as well as possible.
Chapter 2 is the most technical as it presents the mathematical foundations of probability and the most important laws of statistics such as the famous law of large numbers.
With Part 3, I practice explaining why we’re generally bad statisticians, specifically because of our cognitive biases, with supporting explanations to respond to errors.
In Chapter 4 I present a number of current applications of statistics. For example, I explain the mechanics of polls, whatever they are. Among other things, in epidemiology, by showing how the medical profession manages to prove the effectiveness of a drug using the method of so-called “double-blind controlled studies”.
You can get the book Mastering the Uncertain at all major bookstores, FNAC or by ordering online including Amazon.