AGI Sudan walks on the edge of the abyss. The October 25, 2021 coup that brought the military back into power and the war in Ukraine is an explosive mix for a country that, after demonstrations that ousted old dictator Omar alBashir in 2019, thirty years of unchallenged government seemed to have seen some light in its turbulent history.
The international community had welcomed this “revolution” that all of Africa was watching, going so far as to cancel part of the debt and resume financing to revitalize the economy. Instead, the dream vanished in October 2021 and now Sudan has to deal with one deep crisis that continues to deepen. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have dramatic consequences for Sudan’s food security.
According to Save the Children’s director of operations, David Wright, by the end of 2022, 20 million of Sudan’s 45 million, almost half the population, will be food insecure. And the reasons are easy to name: 87% of the wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine. All of this in a context where, according to the UN, one in three Sudanese is already in need of humanitarian assistance in a country where inflation is approaching 260%, the currency is in free fall and the price of bread has risen tenfold since the hit military state , which withdrew all international support from the country. In one fell swoop, the state lost 40 percent of its income: the World Bank suspended two billion dollars in aid, the USA 700 million.
but it’s even worse: Washington had sent 300,000 tons of wheat in 2021 but will not deliver the 400,000 tons promised in 2022. All this will also have extremely serious consequences for even the most defenseless child population. Indeed, families may develop strategies to deal with the crisis that will punish precisely these vulnerable groups in society.
It is foreseeable that school dropouts, child labor and early marriages will increase. When it comes to education, Sudan is one of the worst countries in the Arab world: the primary school enrollment rate is 76%, but only 28% in secondary school. But not only. The 3.3 million displaced people in the country will suffer the most, especially in Darfur, which has been ravaged by decades of conflict, in addition to the 1 million refugees from South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea.
However, the Colonels don’t even seem to care the inexorable abandonment of the international community. From today’s perspective, however, it seems unlikely that the putschists at the top of the country will relinquish power to return to the barracks. The military, which has ruled the country since independence in 1966, controls the local arms industry, with Sudan being Africa’s third largest arms producer after South Africa and Egypt. The influence of the military affects many other vital sectors of the country’s economy, and this is one of the reasons that led to the coup and today will make it difficult to return to military barracks and change power.
The colonels also draw strength from their connection with Russia. It is no coincidence that in the middle of the war with Ukraine, the leaders of Khartoum flew to Moscow to ask for confirmation: are you on our side, despite the war? Wagner mercenaries are known to have a presence in the country, but will Putin, recalling them from several scenarios, continue to support Khartoum? Everything has to be discovered. Indeed, it is not clear what assurances Khartoum has received from Moscow that despite the looming catastrophe, Sudan will receive less humanitarian aid because it will be diverted to Europe, where the UN estimates that 12 million people are needed in Ukraine protection, as well as the more than 4 million who have already fled the country.
On the one hand, the situation of the Sudanese will deteriorate, on the other hand, they will have fewer resources to help them. Not for nothing did the UN Secretary General Antonio Guteres warn only a few weeks ago of the danger of a “hunger hurricane” in many countries, mentioning Sudan in particular. For Khartoum, the coup and its connection with Moscow was pretty good business.