Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically eased Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas. The European Union is working to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, while various European countries, including Germany’s largest economy, are reviewing their strategic energy policies in order to reduce the vulnerability of their energy security.
It is this vulnerability that has prevented the EU, the United States and its allies from imposing sanctions on Russian energy exports (for now). Europe receives about a third of its natural gas from Russia, but dependence varies among EU members. Germany relies on 50% of Russian gas, and Italy imports 40% of its gas needs from Russia. The countries of Southwestern Europe, Spain and Portugal, do not import Russian gas, but the countries of Southeast Europe and Russia’s neighbors to the west, Estonia and Finland, are 100 percent or almost 100 percent dependent on Moscow for natural gas supplies.
As the war in Ukraine threatens to cut off Russian gas supplies – either in the form of sanctions or in revenge for Putin’s sanctions – Europe has realized that ensuring energy security would mean cutting off Russian supplies as soon as possible. way, even at a high economic cost.
Providing gas for next winter should not be a problem, analysts and the European Commission say. The question is what will Europe do in the winter after that – and all the coming winters in the long run – if it wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and not shape its security policy or sanctions for fear of being cut off from its largest source on gas.
This winter is almost over and European storage gas is returning to the five-year range. With stockpiles recovering in the summer, Europe could run out of Russian gas next winter, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“From record lows at the beginning of winter, storage levels have returned[ed] their five-year range, albeit lower, is on track to be in a more comfortable position by the end of March, ”said Katerina Filipenko, chief analyst, Europe gas Research, at WoodMac.
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“Our current assessment is that the EU can survive this winter safely. Currently, gas flows from east to west continue, liquefied natural gas supplies to the EU have increased significantly, and the weather forecast is favorable. “Storage gas use has slowed and we are still around 30% of storage capacity,” European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said on Monday.
EU member states must collectively ensure a certain level of gas storage in their regions and conclude solidarity agreements to send gas where it is most needed, Simson said.
“The war against Ukraine is not only a turning point for Europe’s security architecture, but also for our energy system. This made our vulnerability painfully clear. “We cannot allow a third country to destabilize our energy markets or influence our energy choices,” he said.
“The European Union can do without Russian gas next winter, but it must be united in making difficult decisions, recognizing that in many cases there will not be enough time for perfect decisions,” wrote analysts at the European think tank Bruegel in an analysis. this week. .
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany has said it is changing course “to remove our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday. Germany will build two liquefied natural gas import facilities, in Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven, and seek to speed up the installation of renewable energy capacity to have 100% renewable energy production by 2035.
For Europe, running without Russian gas “will require improvisation and entrepreneurship,” Bruegel analysts say.
“The main message is that if the EU is forced or willing to bear the costs, it should be possible to replace Russian gas next winter without devastating economic activity, freezing people or disrupting electricity supplies,” they said. they.
“But dozens of regulations will have to be reviewed on the spot, the usual procedures and operations will have to be reviewed, a lot of money will have to be spent and difficult decisions will have to be made. In many cases, the time will be too short for perfect answers. ”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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