Elections begin today in Hungary, where Viktor Orban is seeking a fourth term and will become the EU’s longestserving prime minister after Angela Merkel’s resignation. In the past few days, the prime minister summed up his “policy” as follows: “Before God I must not answer for the people of Ukraine, but for Hungary”, “neither a friend of Ukraine, nor of Russia, but a friend of Hungary”. . A policy he launched when the invasion of the neighboring country, ordered by a leader close to him like Vladimir Putin, completely derailed his campaign to win a fourth straight term as prime minister of the former communist country, he turned into the what he proudly calls “illiberal democracy”.
From the start of the conflict, Orban has done everything to ensure that today’s elections, already treacherous as the six opposition parties have united around a single candidate for the first time, do not turn into a referendum on his ties with Putin, Orban’s friend met in Moscow a few weeks before the invasion, in early February, to also discuss increasing Russian gas supplies to Hungary.
A proximity that obviously creates tensions with Ukraine: “You have to decide who you are with,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said publicly to Orban. In response, progovernment media and even Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó have accused the Ukrainian government of interfering in the elections, claiming without evidence that the opposition promised arms and support in exchange for Kiev’s support. for energy sanctions if he wins the elections.
“The war overshadowed the entire election campaign,” Orban said recently, “the issue of peace and security is now part of what the elections are about. And our message is clear: only Fidesz can bring peace. Only we can guarantee the safety of the Hungarian people.
The lastminute polls that give him the lead seem to suggest the strategy is working, even if the margin doesn’t compare to the snowball win four years ago and many are pointing to the possibility of a neckandneck race between the both point to Prime Minister Fidesz’s party and the opposition coalition supporting Peter MarkiZay, conservative mayor of a small town, Catholic father of seven.
The war in Ukraine also provoked further tension between Orban and Brussels, with the Hungarian prime minister opposing the unity of the bloc by imposing sanctions on Moscow and sending weapons to Kyiv that opposed tougher measures against Russia, particularly on the energy front. The victory and a new mandate from Orban would then put the Union in a position to finally have to face the question of whether the funds earmarked for violations of the rule of law should be blocked for Hungary. That’s why Sunday’s vote is a choice between “Orban and Europe,” explains politico Klara Dobrev, number two in the opposition coalition, who is also convinced that “the war in Ukraine and Russian aggression have changed many things.”
Despite the rhetoric, Orban has in recent weeks allied himself with his western allies, allowed NATO to station troops in the western part of the country and has not opposed the EU’s move to allocate 500 million euros for arms and other military aid to the Country. “Hungary. And he also backed the various sanctions packages launched against Russia so far.
But the electoral message he sends to Hungarians is that the country must not supply arms to Ukraine — and must not allow arms to be transported across the HungarianUkrainian border — and that it must resist other moves that the The country’s economy could jeopardize the country’s energy sanctions. “We give Ukrainians everything we can, even beyond our means,” he said, “but we will not respond to any request from them that will destroy our community, neither in the biological sense with our children, who will be affected by a war.” others die, or with the decline of the Hungarian economy”.
Polls show that 64% of Hungarians view Moscow’s actions as aggression rather than defense, but among Fidesz voters 43% believe Russia had the right to act. While 90% of opposition voters think that Orban should condemn Putin in a tougher tone, only 8% of the prime minister’s supporters share this opinion.