The New York race that will be a big indicator of the halfway point: Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan in a race dominated by abortion sentiment and inflation
- A special election will be held in New York Tuesday to decide who will serve the remainder of Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado will serve in the House of Representatives
- Both Marc Molinaro and Pat Ryan are county executives in the Empire State
- A July poll pushed Molinaro up 10 points, but one this month saw the Republican candidate’s lead shrink to just 3 percent
- Ryan conducted his campaign largely out of outrage at the Supreme Court’s decision to rule in Roe v. abortion rights granted to Wade
- Molinaro has focused his energies on voter dissatisfaction with the economy
A special election in New York to fill the remainder of the term of former House Representative Antonio Delgado on Tuesday is being viewed by both Republicans and Democrats as a potential guiding star for November’s midterm elections.
Democrat Pat Ryan, the Ulster County Executive, has launched a campaign to calm voter outrage at the ousting of Roe v. Wade channeled through the Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, his GOP rival, Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro, has focused his campaign largely on American dissatisfaction with Democrats’ handling of the economy.
A recent poll shows the two candidates nearly level after weeks of holding a double-digit lead for Molinaro.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll shows Ryan just three points behind Molinaro’s 46 percent support.
A July poll by the pro-Molinaro group Freedom Council shows the same gap at about 10 percent.
It comes as Democrats across the country see renewed hope in an election year that was widely expected to bring a “red tsunami” to Congress.
Voters in blushing Kansas defied expectations as they flocked last month to reject a proposal that would have removed protections from abortion from their state constitution.
Now poll watchers on both sides of the aisle will get their first taste of how this affects the election of a congressman.
Ulster County’s Democratic Executive Director Pat Ryan has focused his campaign largely on overthrowing Roe v. Wade through the Supreme Court and subsequent rollback of abortion rights across the country
Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro has insisted in several public comments that Americans are primarily concerned with the economy
Delgado, a Democrat, vacated the seat in the Empire State’s 19th congressional district to serve as lieutenant governor to incoming New York governor Kathy Hochul.
Voters there chose Delgado in 2020 by a more than 10 percent margin over his Republican challenger. But President Joe Biden led the district by just two points that same year.
It was won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012.
But a growing body of public opinion polls show that the Supreme Court’s ouster of Roe could be a big enough factor to shake up this year’s races.
An Ipsos/USA Today poll released earlier this month suggests that 7 in 10 US voters want to vote on a similar election measure to Kansas.
And 54 percent said they would vote to protect abortion rights.
Ryan told Portal that the Roe decision “literally shifts the ground”.
“This has fundamentally reinvigorated — certainly in this district and community — not just Democrats, but a wide range of people,” the Democrat said.
Molinaro insisted to the outlet that ordinary Americans are primarily concerned about the state of their finances.
Your choice will be a leitmotif to see what issues are driving voters to the ballot box
“These are families, and these are communities, that work too hard and get too little in return … that’s what they think,” he said.
The Republican’s assertion is also backed by public polls, with more than two-thirds of respondents to an ABC News/Ipsos poll in early August believing the US economy is deteriorating.
Just 37 percent of respondents said they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy.
In a new NBC News poll released Sunday, the outlook is brightening somewhat, though his 40 percent approval rating on the economy is still underwater.
The race for New York’s 19th congressional district is a political toss-up, according to the Inside Elections tracker.
While it could be an early sign of what’s to come, the election results won’t spell a definitive victory for either side looking ahead to next year.
The state’s redrawn congressional map will force Ryan to run for office in the nearby 18th District in November.
While Molinaro’s home will also technically be outside the boundaries of the new 19th Ward, he plans to run again for the same seat later this year.