Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Saturday that the country would make a decision on applying for NATO membership by the end of spring because “Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was.”
Finland’s relationship with Russia has changed “irreversibly,” Marin said, reversing course from previous statements that it was “very unlikely” that Finland would apply to join the military alliance during his current tenure.
Russian officials have warned of possible retaliation in the form of military and political consequences should Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Sergei Belyaev, director of Russia’s foreign ministry’s Second Europe Department, told Russia’s state-run Interfax news agency that Finland and Sweden’s renunciation of NATO was “an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on February 25 – a day after the start of the invasion of Ukraine – Moscow must react if Sweden and Finland intend to join NATO.
“Clearly [the] The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, which is primarily a military alliance, would have serious military-political implications that would require a response from our country,” she said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said NATO’s eastward expansion poses a security threat to Russia. He cited the alliance’s expansion as part of his justification for launching his “military special operation” in Ukraine on February 24.
Moscow’s attack in neighboring Ukraine left Finland with no choice but to reconsider its security policy, Marin said.
According to Finnish broadcaster Yleisradio Oy, the Finnish prime minister said a decision to seek NATO membership would be made “thoroughly but quickly” by this spring.
Finland will likely face consequences one way or another, she said.
“If the President or I expressed a strong opinion on this issue, that would be the end of the debate […] I think it is very important that all central institutions of Finland are involved in the ongoing debate,” she said.
Marin previously said she believes Finland has the right to join NATO if it decides to do so in the future.
“Nobody can influence us, not the United States, not Russia, nobody else,” she told Reuters on January 19, weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.
She said at the time that joining the alliance “would have very significant implications and the sanctions [from Russia] would be extremely hard.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday that the alliance is engaged in “good dialogue” with Finland and Sweden over possible accessions in response to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine.
The decision ultimately rests with Finland, said Stoltenberg.
“We respect Finland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity to decide its own future. That’s exactly what Russia doesn’t respect, they actually try to intimidate and say that if Finland decides to join NATO, there will be consequences,” he said.
Stoltenberg added that if Finland or Sweden applied for NATO membership, he expects that they “will be warmly welcomed by all allies” and that “we will find a way to do that relatively quickly, to bring them into the alliance.” “
A poll conducted in March by think tank Finnish Business and Policy Forum Eva found that 60 percent of respondents supported Finland’s entry into NATO – a 34 percentage point increase from last autumn – and 19 percent opposed it.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Finnish Foreign Ministry and NATO for comment.
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Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin is pictured during a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (not in the picture) at the Chancellery February 19, 2020 in Berlin, Germany. Marin said Saturday that the country would make a decision on its bid for NATO membership by the end of spring. Emmanuel Contini//Getty Images
Update: 4/4/22 11:55 AM ET: This article has been updated with additional background information and changed the word “potential” to “likely” in the title.