Non-Person of the Week Four reasons why Putin lost the war
By Wolfram Weimer on April 5, 2022 at 11:24 am
Russian troops flee the north of Ukraine, committing a terrible massacre. The world is shocked. Bucha is also an indication that the Russian army is not only doing so badly morally, but also militarily. Putin is apparently already planning a victory celebration. In fact, he has already lost the war.
Western intelligence reports say Vladimir Putin wants the war in Ukraine to end by May 9. The Russian president is planning a grand victory parade in Moscow for that day. The date is of great symbolic importance for him: on May 9, Russia regularly celebrates the victory in the “Great Patriotic War” over Nazi Germany with large marches, because Soviet Marshal Georgi Zhukov ordered the unconditional surrender of all German units. the Wehrmacht on May 9, 1945 could achieve. From the start, Putin placed his war of aggression against Ukraine in the narrative of the fight against fascism. Now he wants to celebrate “Victory Day” with a celebration of the triumph over Ukraine. By then – in keeping with the supposedly newly adjusted war objective – the Russian army should have conquered the land belt from Crimea to Luhansk. The strip of land he calls “New Russia” must be militarily protected and integrated into Russia in the future. His interest in the ceasefire is based on the front line in Donbass and the width of the land belt. In the coming weeks, he wants to gain as much territory as possible so he can “dictate difficult peace conditions”. Then, on May 9, he could present himself as a liberator and a victor.
Intelligence reports may be correct. However, Putin’s calculation is no longer correct. Because in fact he has already lost the war disastrously.
the military defeat
After six weeks of war, Putin’s army has a catastrophic interim result. More than 10,000 of its own soldiers fallen, including high-ranking generals, many thousands wounded, hundreds of tanks destroyed or lost, more than 200 helicopters and planes shot down. Half the army looks exhausted. And yet, from the Russian point of view, they have not yet conquered a major city and have barely passed the border areas. Ukraine is neither conquered nor destabilized. Not even the Kiev government can be overthrown. On the contrary. The Russian army spectacularly lost the great battle of Kiev.
This has happened that the world public did not think possible. The world’s greatest nuclear power with an army that, according to the Global Firepower Index, commands the strongest armored army in the world, simply failed in its blitzkrieg against brave Ukrainians.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from northern Ukraine is not voluntary, it does not fit into any Kremlin strategic plan, as it weakens Putin’s negotiating position in the peace talks. This retreat is an act of desperation to concentrate forces decimated in the East and at least achieve something there. The extent of the military defeat for the Russians can also be seen from the fact that the retreat along the entire 400-kilometer front (from Malyn via Kiev and Chernihiv to Sumy) was not only quick, it was chaotic and precipitous. In their hasty retreat, Putin’s armed forces are leaving behind vast amounts of military equipment, and even dozens of his own soldiers are being abandoned in the forests who failed to return to Belarus on convoys in time. These are all signs of dissolution and not of ordered military action. In line with this, reports of gross disobedience on the part of Russian soldiers are piling up.
the moral defeat
The war of aggression had a miserable legitimizing base from the start. The Kremlin made little effort to hide its blatant imperial greed. The lies of an alleged fascist threat were followed by relentless bombing. Putin’s global position, not particularly great by any means, has since imploded.
Loofah’s events now add a horrible dimension. The massacre of civilians is reminiscent of Srebrenica. Mass executions of civilians in the streets, women raped and killed, burned on the roads to cover ill-suited tracks, entire families massacred – all of this relegates Putin to the ranks of war criminals from the abyss. US President Biden aptly calls him a “butcher”. As such, Putin will never again stand next to heads of state in a summit photo and will likely not even be able to leave his own country, otherwise he would be arrested and indicted at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
the political defeat
As a result of this war, Putin lost the influence of fast moving foreign policy. The vast majority of states no longer want to maintain constructive relations with their Russia, sanctioning him and his clique of leaders. Russia was even expelled from the Council of Europe. Moscow can no longer assert its political interests anywhere in the world. Even in Germany, where there was surprisingly broad sympathy for Russia before the war, where the political sounding board of Russian interests reached the chancellery and presidential offices, where people who understood Putin could spread widely on talk shows, all support was disappeared. In the coming years, Russia will find it difficult to assert even harmless political interests on the international stage. The country is even isolated in terms of sports and cultural policy. Russia can’t even participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2022.
The economic defeat
Western sanctions are hitting Russia’s economy hard. They are already affecting the national economy like a lost war. According to forecasts, Russia’s gross domestic product will collapse by ten percent. Widespread loss of sales markets, technological isolation and lack of investment are strategically weakening Russia. The country will have a setback of at least a decade. This defeat hits a Russia that is, in any case, much weaker than the world public thinks. Russia’s gross domestic product is not even half that of Germany. The economic power of Putin’s supposed world power roughly matches that of tiny South Korea. Even Italy clearly outperforms the Russian economy. One NATO diplomat summed it up: “Russia is really a poor man on a huge piece of land who can buy weapons that are very expensive.” And this poor man’s savings sock is now being snatched from him.
Russians’ real disposable income is falling and is currently about 10% lower than in 2013. Inflation and rising unemployment are putting pressure on consumer sentiment. Tax revenue is stagnant and reveals how weak Russia’s financial power is: the entire state budget of the world’s largest country is as big as Hubertus Heil’s German welfare budget.
Russia is also very dependent on oil and gas. They account for two-thirds of Russia’s exports. There are also other raw materials such as metals, wood and minerals. Raw materials as a whole represent three quarters of total exports. But now, after the war, the sanctions and the resulting acceleration of the global energy revolution, more and more customers are turning to regenerative energy and nuclear energy. But what will Russia live on if the oil and gas business collapses? With this war, Putin alienated his customers, ruined his main market, blocked access to future technologies, and thus severely damaged Russia’s economic prospects.
Conclusion: Putin can proclaim himself a hero on May 9 and hold a victory parade in front of the Kremlin – he lost the war economically, politically, morally and militarily.