Updated on 05/04/2022 at 19:49
- Because of the war atrocities in Ukraine, the European Union wants to react quickly, broadly and, above all, harshly.
- New sanctions against Russia must be decided, for the first time also in the energy sector.
- Political scientist Julia Grauvogel explains the extent to which previous and new measures affect the Russian regime.
The atrocities in the Ukrainian city of Bucha have shaken the politics of Europe. In the face of alleged Russian war crimes, Germany and its allies are unanimous: they want to react quickly and continue to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) announced arms deliveries and sanctions. “Putin and his supporters will feel the consequences,” he says. French President Emmanuel Macron also called for a “new round of sanctions” against Moscow. It would be the fifth package of sanctions from the European Union.
Read too: All current information about the war in Ukraine on the live ticker
According to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, the confederation of states is working on new punitive measures against Russia. On Tuesday, the European Commission presented an extensive package: according to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, it includes, among other things, a ban on imports of coal from Russia, a port ban on Russian ships and other restrictions. to trade with Russia. However, the 27 EU countries have yet to decide whether sanctions will be imposed as proposed.
But how effective are the sanctions that have already been decided? What measures do you still avoid? And is the Putin regime so easy to isolate?
Comprehensive sanctions at once against Russia
“The current sanctions against Russia are unique so far, for the first time such a large economy has been subjected to such extensive coercive measures,” political scientist Julia Grauvogel of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) said in an interview. to our editors. The countermeasures issued are “of a completely different quality” and are “much more extensive” than in 2014/2015, when the West sanctioned Moscow for annexing Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. “The EU, the US and the UK issued the sanctions with great unanimity and much faster than eight years ago.”
Grauvogel has been researching international sanctions for years and emphasizes: “Now it’s a question of restricting Russia’s ability to act. The West does not expect a change in Vladimir Putin’s behavior; instead, it wants to limit the financing of the war in the medium term.”
According to Grauvogel, not only the scope of the sanctions is important for the effect of the signal, but also the speed with which they are issued. “Given the previous differences in dealing with Russia, the different negotiation processes and legal requirements, one should not underestimate the fact that the classic Western sanctions countries, the USA, Great Britain and the member states of the European Union, are now so united,” says Grauvogel.
But it is also a fact that only a few other countries have adhered to Western sanctions so far, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Russia is anything but isolated internationally, as China and India in particular show.
China facing Russia, neutral India
Thus, China does not depart from its support for Russia. This was clearly evident last week during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Beijing pledged its “boundless” friendship with Russia and criticized Western sanctions for harming global trade.
At the same time, the Chinese leadership is constantly emphasizing that it does not want to deliberately circumvent Western sanctions. For Russia, China is anything but irrelevant as an economic partner, says Grauvogel. Even more important for Moscow, however, is the symbolic support “that Beijing is not on the side of the West”.
Since the beginning of the war, India has already bought several million barrels of Russian oil at low prices and would like to increase this import. In the first three months of the year, India imported 13 million barrels from Russia – in 2021 it was around 16 million barrels for the whole year. Most of India’s military equipment also comes from Russia. In addition, there are considerations to simplify the settlement of trades directly in rupees and rubles.
“For India, national and economic interests come first,” says Grauvogel. This explains the neutral position that India took in the Ukraine war. India does not support Western sanctions, abstains from UN Security Council resolutions and has not officially condemned Russia’s war of aggression. Since India has good relations with the US, it wants to stay as far away from the conflict as possible – but this is more to Moscow’s benefit.
Which adjustment screws remain for the West
- There are still clear differences between the US, the European Union and Britain when it comes to punishing Russian citizens. “Only about a third of the individuals overlap and appear on all sanctions lists,” says Grauvogel. Especially on the European list, many names are missing, some of which have been on the US list for years. The Russian military may also be sanctioned after the atrocities that have recently become known.
- So far, only five of the ten largest Russian banks are excluded from the Swift international payment system. So far, the country’s largest financial institution, Sberbank, and the third largest, Gazprombank, have not been sanctioned.
- However, extending sanctions to the energy sector would likely be more effective. Until now, EU states have shied away from this because the measure could also do greater harm to the initiator. A first step, though much less risky, is the ban on Russian coal imports that has been discussed.
The conclusion
“In terms of foreign policy, Russia is very isolated and despite the attitudes of India and China,” says political scientist Grauvogel. This is demonstrated, for example, by the UN General Assembly resolution, which clearly condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine at the end of March, and which was unexpectedly supported by a large majority.
Economically, however, Russia is not alone, notes Grauvogel: “Previous sanctions have not completely cut Russia off from the world market.” However, if the EU agrees to an energy embargo, Russia could be hit hard. At the same time, there were almost no sanctions options, for example, in the event that Russia uses weapons of mass destruction such as chemical warfare agents.
So far, nearly half of Russia’s oil and gas exports go to the European Union, which is also by far Moscow’s most important trading partner. It is true that Russia is not just trying to diversify its markets in the context of sanctions. Alone: This is not possible overnight. After all, most pipelines run east to west – not north to south.
Time could also help Russia on another occasion: there is still a big deal on sanctions. “But in the medium term, some countries, including Germany, may withdraw and push for more progress in the peace negotiations,” believes Grauvogel. On the one hand, US President Joe Biden seems to want to keep sanctions in place until there is a change of power in Russia. On the other hand, some EU states may soon be pushing to suspend measures that are already ripe for progress.
About the expert:
Dr Julia Grauvogel is a political scientist at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies and has been researching international sanctions for years, especially their impact on authoritarian states.
Fonts used:
- Phone interview with Julia Grauvogel
- Russia export data provided by the World Bank
- Reports from the dpa and AFP news agencies
Updated on 04/04/2022 at 14:24
Federal Economy Minister Robert Habeck continues to reject an immediate energy embargo against Russia. Even if current sanctions “harm Putin every day,” additional measures could further destabilize and weaken the Russian economy.