My first reaction after hearing about the Eagles’ deal with the Saints was that unless Howie Roseman gets a contract extension, it probably won’t ever happen.
Think about it.
If you are a GM and are facing an uncertain future and your contract is up at the end of the year and you are concerned that you may be fighting for your job and you have three first round tips then you are now going to do whatever it takes to win, so the owner decides to keep you.
Even if it’s not in the best long-term interest of the franchise.
Because survival is a pretty powerful tool. And the reality is that holding those three top 20 picks would have served the Eagles of 2022 just a little bit better than a trade that left them with fewer fortunes this year but more in the future.
Ignoring anything after Round 3, here’s what the Eagles had in the next three drafts before the trade:
2022: Three 1st rounds, one 2nd round, one 3rd round.
2023: A 1st round, a 2nd round, a 3rd round.
2024: A 1st round, a 2nd round, a 3rd round.
And now they have:
2022: Two 1st rounds, one 2nd round, two 3rd rounds.
2023: Two 1st rounds, one 2nd round, one 3rd round.
2024: One 1st round, two 2nd rounds, one 3rd round.
As tempting as it was to stick with 15, 16, and 19, the ability to add premium picks to the next two drafts, as well as a potentially very good first-round pick in 2023, is a huge win if you start doing that to look at the overall picture.
And with a new contract, it’s a lot easier to see the big picture.
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The Eagles now have nine picks in the first three rounds of the next three years instead of seven, and that’s where Roseman is best. Picks become more picks and better picks.
And if you look at the Saints’ pick, there’s a pretty good chance it will end up being an upgrade over the No. 19 the Eagles shipped to New Orleans.
Sean Payton is gone, Drew Brees is gone, and this is a Saints team facing the seventh-toughest schedule in the NFL in 2022. The Vegas over-under for the Saints is 7 1/2 wins, and if the Saints do win, seven or eight games, Howie just turned 19th place into a potential top 10 pick and somewhere in the 12th-worst case range 15
The thing is, even with that trade, even with offloading a first-round pick, the Eagles still have a ton of net worth. It’s not that they can’t go out and improve the roster in a big way this month.
They still have two top-20 picks for the first time since 1973, when they drafted a couple of multiple-time Pro Bowlers — Jerry Sisemore at No. 3 and Charle Young at No. 6 — and they still have five picks in the first three rounds for the first time since 1995.
And along with the Lions, they’re one of only two teams with four first-round picks over the next two seasons.
READ: Trade gives Eagles a plan B if Jalen Hurts doesn’t work
So they have the opportunity to instantly reshape the roster in a way very few teams can and then come back next year with two more first-round picks and then come back the year after with a first-round pick and two 2s.
And if they keep all those picks? This will mark the first time in franchise history — and the NFL draft dates back to 1936 — that the Eagles will have three picks in the first two rounds in three consecutive drafts.
All because Roseman took steps to serve the team’s long-term future.
Those three first-round picks were really intriguing, and it was exciting to see where the Eagles would take them.
But this trade is an investment in the future and puts the Eagles in a truly unique position when it comes to long-term roster building.
Obviously, Roseman needs to turn those picks into high-quality starters, but more picks means more chances to hit players, as well as more opportunities to turn those picks into even more picks. And even more players.
Will this all work? No idea. If you draft more Marcus Smiths and Andre Dillards than Lane Johnsons and DeVonta Smiths, it doesn’t matter how many picks you have.
But as tempting as it must have been to sit at 15, 16 and 19 and take only the top three players, playing the long game gives the Eagles their best chance of building the right path.