The 2022 NFL Draft is upon us, and unlike years past, no one has even a rough idea of how the first round will play out. There’s a consensus on likely #1 overall pick, sure, and you’ll find many of the same names in the top 5 or so in mock drafts. But even at notable positions like quarterback, where prospects like Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis and Matt Corral are all vying to get off the board first, there’s a lot of uncertainty.
With that in mind, we decided to go through each of the 32 first-round picks and suggest what each team should do in each slot: trade up, trade down, or stay. Some clubs are better positioned to step up for top quality talent. Others might benefit more from raising additional assets. Here is our advice to your decision makers:
Normally we’d say trade down just because even after another veteran buying spree they could use whatever tips they can get. But with 12 picks already in hand, the mission here is simple: get the best man. That’s likely Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who could team up with Josh Allen to give Jacksonville a legitimate D-line.
2. Leo: Trade down
Anyone who really likes a quarterback here (see: Malik Willis) should think twice before pulling the trigger. If not, they’d better expand their collection of picks, especially with another premiere (#32) on deck.
3. Texans: Stay tuned
Entertaining calls down wouldn’t hurt, but they already have two-thirds and two-fourths. With top-tier talent needed at pretty much every position, they should sit tight, add a top tackle or do a pass rusher, and then find another starter in 13th place.
4. Jets: Trade down
It might be worth a tackle (Ikem Ekwonu) or an edge rusher (Kayvon Thibodeaux), but with another crack on a first-rounder in 10th place, they can afford to go down and get another pick or two for Day 2 to get while they try to speed up their reconstruction.
5. Giants: Trade back
Like the Jets, they certainly have a shot at a top OT or a pass rusher, but with another pick two slots later, why not seek offers from teams in need of QBs? Coming out of a dire salary cap situation, they need all the extra ammo they can get their hands on.
This is a popular spot for QB projections, and hey, if they’re sold to Willis or Kenny Pickett, you could do worse. But given that most of these QB prospects appear similar in terms of risk/reward, they should prioritize rebuilding draft capital – they won’t re-vote until the fourth round – and take a hit at QB later in the first round do.
7. Giants: Stay tuned
We’ve traded them back from #5, so here’s the best place to grab an instant starter, either in one-on-one combat or basically any defensive position. Sauce Gardner, Kyle Hamilton or Nakobe Dean would all make for playful additions.
Many have suggested a trade down, but they already own two second- and third-round picks after last year’s trades by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. By sitting tight, they secure a shot at a top QB – Willis is the most tempting long-term bet – or playmaker, either on offense (Garrett Wilson?) or defense (Jermaine Johnson II?).
Armed with two strong second-rounders after their trade with Russell Wilson, they have an opportunity to shake up the top 10, either to add Wilson’s replacement (Willis? Matt Corral?) or to get a new left tackle or No. 1 cornerback.
10. Jets: stay tuned
If they want to drop from #4 as suggested above, they should hold on to that spot and make sure they leave Day 1 with a top 10 talent, likely as a wide receiver, edge rusher, or cornerback.
Staying in place and putting the best defender on the board would be fine, but after dishing out a pair of picks for new QB Carson Wentz, consider a drop to collect darts.
There is a real case for every scenario here. If you think they’re playoff material, why not step up to secure a top corner? If you’re thinking long-term, why not include tips to help new management prepare for life beyond Kirk Cousins? In the end, they can probably stay where they are, keep their other picks, and still land a top-notch edge rusher or cover man.
13. Texan: Stay tuned
More than most teams with multiple firsts, they desperately need talent at all positions. By picking No. 3 and No. 13, they should be able to add at least one impact starter to their 2022 lineup.
14. Ravens: Act up
They might as well stay seated and roll with the best pass rusher or corner, but with two third-rounds and a whopping five fourth-rounds, they shouldn’t hesitate to play for a top-10 talent like Sauce Gardner or Jermaine JohnsonII.
15. Eagles: Stay tuned
It all depends on who’s available, but after pushing back one of their three firsts to 2023 in a big swap with the Saints, they should take a breath and either get a Day 1 starter or a long-term play in defense or on secure the outer lane. Andrew Booth Jr. and Jordan Davis are two names to keep an eye on.
16. Saints: Trade up
After trading multiple picks with the Eagles to add a first, they might as well double down and guarantee they get who they want, whether in the QB (Kenny Pickett? Matt Corral?) or elsewhere, like outside or up front.
After their blockbuster free agency gig, they can’t just sit on their hands, can they? An incipient offensive or defensive tackle may fall out of their laps, but they have every reason to be aggressive and build around Justin Herbert to win now.
18. Eagles: Trade down
They’re pushing their chips to 2023 when QB may reappear on their radar. If they are stuck and picking at #15 they should try to trade again, this time to get an extra pick for Day 2 while slipping slightly down in the first.
19. Saints: Stay tuned
Perhaps they would use this as part of a big move up from 16th (see above), but the better plan is probably to address multiple needs at once, ideally leaving the first round with new long-term options at tackle and wide receiver.
A trade up might be the only way to secure one of the best QB prospects, but are we so sure? If Pittsburgh is patient, he’ll likely at least make a bounce on the last “round one” QB, whether it’s Corral or Willis or Desmond Ridder, without pledging additional 2022 picks they don’t have.
Do you intend to compete with the Bills this year? Or stay ahead of the dolphins? If so, it would be just as wise to consider going down — and giving yourself a few shots to fill holes in the corner and linebacker — as making a jump up.
With an added first from the Davante Adams deal, they should be as active as possible in order to earn promotion, mainly to replace Adams far out. Whether it’s Drake London, Treylon Burks or Chris Olave, they need immediate help for Aaron Rodgers.
For two years they approached free agency like it was 2017 and prioritized older/injured veterans. They are also without fourth and fifth rounders. In a deep WR and edge rusher class, they can afford to slide down and add another pick or two.
They could use instant on-line help and they should be able to find something here. Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green both make sense as plug-and-play guards. A WR or pass rusher could also be on the table.
25. Bills: stay tuned
In such a deep WR class, they can be stuck waiting for a high profile prospect like Jameson Williams or Jahan Dotson to fall into their lap. Josh Allen should still be happy.
26. Titans: Stay tuned
This is one place to look for a surprise QB pick, but it’s also great for staying patient and seeing which top OTs or WRs slip. Don’t rule out promotion if you’re genuinely interested in finding a Ryan Tannehill successor.
Your roster is already properly assembled for a legitimate playoff run. No need to force minor issues and give up valuable future picks to get into the top 25. Hold on and bolster depth from the edge or front.
28. Packer: Stay tuned
This assumes they don’t box this one with #22 to level up. If the Packers can exit Day 1 with a new starting receiver as well as a new offensive tackle or pass rusher, Brian Gutekunst should be welcomed.
29. Chiefs: Act up
With two firsts available to them after the Tyreek Hill deal, Kansas City is ready to move. The Chiefs are in win-now mode as long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, so skipping other teams to add a top WR makes a lot of sense.
30. Chiefs: Stay tuned
Someone’s going to be itching to get back into the first round here, but the Chiefs have plenty of extra tips after the Tyreek Hill deal. If they can address WR with #29 (or via trade up), they can add a pass rusher or cornerback assist here.
31. Bengal: Trade down
Obviously they’re still in win-now mode coming off the Super Bowl bid, but in a draft where the latter first-round picks aren’t entirely predictable, they shouldn’t mind an extra one or two Add picks to drop a few spots and give the fifth year option to someone else.
32. Leo: Stay tuned
A trade down is just as smart, but let’s assume they’re genuinely intrigued by a QB who’s still on the board (Desmond Ridder?). It would be wise to secure a fifth-year option for a signal caller.