Two days after nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban won his fourth straight term, European Union officials on Tuesday moved to hold Hungary accountable for what bloc leaders describe as violations of the rule of law, and headed to the a procedure that could withhold billions of euros in grants for the first time.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the immediate concern was corruption. Orban has been accused for years of enriching his allies with EU money intended to support infrastructure, agriculture and other programs. And a new mechanism allows the bloc to suspend self-government of subsidies by countries that allow EU funds to be misused.
Von der Leyen said a formal letter was on its way to Budapest outlining the EU executive’s intentions to trigger the so-called “conditionality mechanism”.
At least 15 of the 27 member states – representing around 290 million people out of a total population of more than 440 million people – would have to agree to it. From start to finish, the funding cut could take between six and eight months, an EU official said on Tuesday.
Despite ties to Putin, Hungary’s Orban is gaining popularity ahead of the election
Orban’s chief of staff Gergely Gulyás reacted to von der Leyen’s announcement by comparing Brussels to the prime minister’s domestic political opposition – a mistake, he said, “since Hungarians just rejected it by a large majority”.
Orban mocked the EU in his victory speech on Sunday evening. “We got such a big victory that you might be able to see it from the moon, and certainly from Brussels,” he said.
However, many political analysts say Orban and his party have been able to stay in power precisely because of the anti-democratic actions – changing the constitution, suppressing dissent, exercising control over the media, undermining the independence of the judiciary – that have drawn criticism from EU officials Brussels and other European leaders over the years.
Pro-Putin leaders in Europe are reasserting their power
Poland is similarly locked in a conflict with Brussels over the independence of its judiciary and other legal norms. And it has been regularly linked to Hungary in discussions about withholding funds. The EU has already withheld some payments to Poland and Hungary from a pandemic recovery fund.
But Poland has recently made conciliatory gestures towards Brussels. And it has been further rehabilitated since becoming a linchpin of the Western response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, housing reinforced NATO forces and taking in nearly 2.5 million refugees.
Von der Leyen hinted on Tuesday that the EU would not act quickly to trigger the conditionality mechanism against Poland, although she acknowledged that issues related to the independence of the judiciary remained unresolved.
With Russia on Poland’s doorstep, Warsaw is trying to woo Western critics
Poland was the largest beneficiary of EU aid in the 2014-2020 budget, with €104 billion, or US$118 billion. Hungary, whose population is about a quarter of Poland’s, received 40 billion euros, or $45 billion.
The war in Ukraine saw divisions between the two traditional allies, with Polish officials refusing to meet in Budapest over what they saw as a meager Hungarian response. Orban is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s staunchest ally in Europe, and he has condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine without criticizing Putin.
Quentin Aries contributed to this report.