Italy’s decision, in the wake of France, Germany and other European countries, to expel about 30 Russian embassy officials suspected of espionage has nothing to do with diplomacy but is purely military. It is confirmation that our country, like the entire EU, feels itself to be an active part of the conflict and thus also a target for the Kremlin’s secret service. A decision that, for goodness sake, will have had its reasons and will be based on suspicion and solid evidence. After all, the spy war is one of the many faces of a conflict and it is obvious that knowing the enemy’s movements is one of the factors that can lead to victory. In short, it’s a clash that’s on point and shouldn’t draw too much attention.
However, this story also brings with it another valuation of no small importance. Yesterday I wrote that “a war awaits us tomorrow”, that is, a permanent conflict that could accompany us for a year, if not longer, with phases of more or less intensity. Yesterday’s events confirm this, because such a measure and of this magnitude means cutting off the legs of diplomacy and creating a deep rupture with Moscow in the short to medium term. Above all, it is acknowledged that there is a lack of trust between the parties in the field, so that military logic prevails.
Above all, there is deep skepticism about the negotiations. Nobody is betting on the possibility of reaching an agreement within a few weeks. In fact, no one sees compromise or mediation on the horizon. Putin’s steps show that the priority path remains the military one, that the tsar is not satisfied with Crimea and Donbass, but is thinking of assembling another Ukraine with the territories of the Southeast, which is why in the coming weeks on this front it will be give a new Russian offensive. If the Kremlin’s military operation is successful, it is clear that Putin will never agree to withdraw from the conquered territories, and this attitude will make an agreement with Zelenskyy very difficult, if not impossible.
Yesterday’s move, the expulsion of thirty Russian embassy officials, is a demonstration of what is brewing. Had there been grounds for serious negotiations, the main EU countries would probably have postponed espionage risks, as they have always done, since the Kremlin has always combined diplomacy with intelligence. But since the negotiations are futile for the time being, the generals or the 007ers continue to play the cards the real ones . Except that when diplomacy is weakened, there is a real danger: that of believing only in guns and losing hope that there will be peace eventually.