It was Moscow’s worst defeat since withdrawing from Kyiv in March – and a sign that the war could be entering a new phase. Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have recaptured more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory — more than Russian forces have captured in all of its operations since April.
Back in Russia, senior Russian and Chinese officials formed a united front to pave the way for an expected meeting between Putin and Xi on the sidelines of a regional summit in Uzbekistan – their first face-to-face meeting since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And according to the Russian parliament, a senior Chinese leader has expressed explicit support for Russia’s war on Ukraine — claims not included in the Chinese side’s statement, which contradict Beijing’s previous efforts to maintain a veneer of neutrality.
On Thursday and Friday, China’s top lawmaker Li Zhanshu — a close Xi ally and third-ranking leader of the Chinese Communist Party — met with Vyacheslav Volodin, head of Russia’s State Duma, and other Russian lawmakers in Moscow after attending an economic forum in the eastern city of Vladivostok.
According to a State Duma statement, Li reassured members that “China understands and supports Russia on issues that represent its vital interests, particularly regarding the situation in Ukraine.”
“We see the United States and its NATO allies expanding their presence near Russia’s borders, seriously threatening national security and the lives of Russian citizens. We fully understand the need for all measures taken by Russia to protect its vital interests. we are providing our assistance,” Li was quoted as saying.
“In the Ukraine issue, we see how they put Russia in an impossible situation. And in this case, Russia made an important decision and reacted decisively,” he added.
Beijing has steadfastly refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – let alone speak of a “war”. Instead, she has repeatedly blamed NATO and the US for the conflict.
But previously, Chinese officials have not publicly endorsed the “necessity” of the Russian invasion or admitted that Beijing is “providing assistance.”
This clearly supportive language is absent from the Chinese reading of the meetings. In fact, in the Chinese version, Li is not quoted as referring to Ukraine at all.
According to the official Xinhua News Agency, Li expressed China’s willingness to “continue to cooperate with Russia to provide mutual assistance on issues affecting each other’s core interests and major concerns.”
Li also criticized the sanctions against Russia, according to Xinhua, and called for greater cooperation with Moscow in “fighting external interference, sanctions and long-armed justice.”
While it is not uncommon for China to omit content of high-level meetings from its official statements, the significant discrepancy between the Beijing and Moscow statements has drawn the attention of experts.
“The Russian version went much further than any Chinese version. If they don’t work this out with Beijing, it could really upset some in Beijing,” he wrote Brian Harta fellow of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Bad news for China?
Moscow and Beijing have become closer partners in recent years as both face tensions with the West, with Xi and Putin declaring the two countries had a “borderless” partnership weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But Russia’s recent setbacks in Ukraine could leave China in a serious dilemma just weeks before Xi is widely expected to secure a norm-breaking third term at a key Communist Party meeting.
“Beijing cannot sit idly by as Russia is defeated in Ukraine because it will (at the very least) result in a greatly weakened Russia, a less useful ally and less able to distract Washington, and create (at most) political instability could be in Moscow,” Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University, wrote on Twitter.
At the extreme, Brands added, political instability in Moscow could lead to instability within the “strategic partnership” in which Xi has invested so much.
“You can bet that as Russia’s position deteriorates, Putin will seek increased Chinese support. Unless Beijing finds a way to provide such support, we could see greater tensions in the Sino-Russian partnership sooner than many analysts have anticipated. ” he wrote.
It is questionable to what extent China is willing to support Russia at the expense of its own strategic interests and goals. So far, Beijing has not provided Moscow with any direct military or financial aid that could trigger sanctions from Washington.
Some experts see the growing relationship between China and Russia as mainly pragmatic, based on cost-benefit calculations that can easily shift.
“The Sino-Russian relationship is not based on ‘common values’ or a sense of respect/affection… It is mainly based on interests. And interests can change quickly as the dynamic changes.” wrote Hartthe CSIS expert.
“This does not mean that China-Russia relations are weak. Except they’re not necessarily permanent,” he added.