“The special operation could be completed in the near future.” The words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov are already sparking hope and speculation. Many read in it the intention to shut down the operations prematurely and to be content with only partially achieving the desired goals. Also because 24 hours earlier, Peskov recognized Moscow’s high losses for the first time. “We have significant losses of soldiers and for us he admitted it is a great tragedy”.
Although CNN yesterday reported what was said by an American defense source, many are convinced that Russia is about to mobilize the reserves and deploy 60,000 troops to meet the heavy casualties it has suffered. Many are betting that the operations can be completed within four weeks. The end of hostilities coincides with the May 9 parade that has commemorated the victory over the Third Reich for 77 years. A suggestive coincidence considering that the Kiev regime is accused of having reincarnated Nazism. But even in this second act of Special Operation, the real Russian difficulty will be respecting the script. The first act already proved it. The victorious march on Kyiv promised to Vladimir Putin by political and military advisers ended at the gates of the capital. And Moscow, as confirmed by US intelligence, had to permanently close this front. It was no better in the south and east. The stationing of tens of thousands of troops around Kyiv and the unexpected efficiency of the Ukrainian army prevented Moscow from saturating the southeastern front. This strategic underestimation slowed the takeover of Mariupol and the other areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that are still in Ukrainian hands. And so, in the end, that advance on Kharkiv, Dnieper and Odessa, which was supposed to guarantee control over the areas east of the Dnieper and all tributaries to the sea, failed to materialize. From there, a Russian army is now trying to retake all of Novorossya, the areas that were annexed by the tsarist empire in the 18th century and only passed to Ukraine after the October Revolution, Putin recalls again and again. But the generals’ plans have to be reconciled with the reality on the ground.
Moscow relies on troops exhausted by forty days of hard and bloody fighting that have drained its morale and resolve. The Ukrainians are not only more motivated, but also count on a stream of weapons and supplies, which after the end of the fighting for Kyiv can easily reach the new front. And to make the difference, new shipments of radarguided antiaircraft systems, tanks and tactical drones are being added. Not to mention the ability to focus on a much more limited front on the deadly Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones that have sowed death and destruction among the Russian columns. Meanwhile, the Russian movements appear to be in a complete stalemate. Odessa remains 132 kilometers away from the Mykolaiv front, where the offensive is progressing very slowly. Kharkiv, besieged for over 40 days, appears to remain impregnable. A static nature that makes the advance on Dnepro, the industrial and political heart of Novorossya, unlikely. The next four weeks of the war could therefore hardly suffice to take Mariupol and the other areas of the selfproclaimed republics of Donesk and Lugansk into Ukrainian hands. In the end, the Russian generals may have to revise their goals. At this point, however, it must be clarified whether Kyiv and the NATO allies are ready to accept a unilaterally proclaimed ceasefire by the Kremlin. Because if Kyiv decides to keep fighting and NATO declares that it is ready to support them, the war would continue.