President Vladimir Putin’s thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if Russia’s “territorial integrity” is threatened has sparked heated debate in the West over how he would respond.
In a televised address on Wednesday, the Russian leader said he was not bluffing about using nuclear weapons when Russian territories were threatened, as he announced a partial military mobilization that would result in about 300,000 reserve forces being deployed to fight in Ukraine
“Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the tide can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, adding: “This is not a bluff.”
Analysts aren’t convinced that Putin is ready to be the first to use nuclear weapons since the United States dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan in 1945.
Several experts and officials spoke to AFP about the possible scenarios that could arise should Russia launch a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts say Moscow would likely use one or more “tactical” or battlefield nuclear bombs.
Tactical nuclear weapons are small weapons ranging in yield from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons, compared to the 1.2 megatons of the largest US strategic warhead or the 58-megaton bomb tested by Russia in 1961.
Tactical bombs are designed to have a limited impact on the battlefield compared to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed to fight and win all-out wars.
But “small” and “limited” are relative: the atomic bomb that the US devastatingly dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was a mere 15 kilotons.
(Al Jazeera)
What could Moscow aim for?
Analysts say Russia’s goal in using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine would be to scare it into surrender or submission to negotiations and divide the country’s Western backers.
Mark Cancian, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in the front lines.
Conquering 20 miles (32 km) of territory could require the use of multiple nuclear bombs – small gains for the huge risks of nuclear weapons introduction and nuclear fallout.
“Using just one isn’t going to be enough,” Cancian said.
Instead, Moscow could send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water or detonating one high over Ukraine to create an electromagnetic pulse that disables electronic devices.
Or Putin could choose to attack a Ukrainian military base or hit an urban center, causing mass casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such scenarios “would likely aim to split the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) alliance and the global consensus against Putin,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former White House nuclear policy expert, wrote on Substack on Friday.
“It’s unclear if it would succeed and could be seen as desperation as determination,” he said.
(Al Jazeera)
How should the West react?
The West has remained unclear about how it would respond to a tactical nuclear strike, and the choices are complicated.
The US and NATO do not want to appear weak in the face of an implied nuclear threat. But they would also want to avoid the possibility that the war in Ukraine — not a NATO member — could escalate into a much broader, devastating global nuclear war.
Experts say the West would have no choice but to respond to a Russian nuclear attack and that a response should come from NATO as a group, not the US alone.
The US has about 100 of its own tactical nuclear weapons stationed in NATO countries and could respond in kind against Russian forces.
The threat of a response would show determination and remind Moscow of the danger of its actions, said Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council.
However, he said “it could also provoke a Russian nuclear retaliation, increasing the risk of a major nuclear exchange and another humanitarian catastrophe.”
Another risk is that some NATO members may oppose a nuclear response, serving Putin’s goals of weakening the alliance.
(Al Jazeera)
Should Ukraine get more powerful weapons?
According to experts, it may be more effective to respond to a nuclear attack in a more conventional military or diplomatic manner and provide Ukraine with deadlier weapons to attack Russia.
“Russian nuclear use could offer an opportunity to persuade previously reluctant countries – such as India and possibly even China – to participate in escalating sanctions,” Kroenig said.
In addition, the US could offer Ukraine NATO aircraft, Patriot and THAAD anti-missile batteries, and long-range ATACMS missiles that could be used by Ukrainian forces to penetrate deep into Russia.
“Whatever restrictions we have on the Ukrainian armed forces — and I think we have some restrictions — I think we’re lifting all of those,” Cancian said.