The Masters appeared to be heading for a drama-free Sunday. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler appeared on the verge of running away from the field. But a few stumbles at the end might add a little more interest to Sunday at Augusta National.
So we rounded up our experts to assess whether Scheffler could be caught. Also, after a tough third round, we check in on Tiger Woods and what to expect from another walk and limp on Sunday.
Can someone catch Scottie Scheffler?
Markus Schlabach: Probably not. Check out his second shot of the 18th on Saturday after taking a fall for an unplayable lie. Scheffler has never won a major championship, but he’s fearless and is playing better than everyone else at the moment. He was a little wobbly at the end of the back nine on Saturday, but he still walked away with a 3-stroke lead. I think Scheffler is playing too well to waste. There will be a lot of pressure on the back nine on Sunday. The Texan has endured a nearly two-month heat few golfers have ever endured, and it will likely culminate in him winning his first major and a green jacket.
MichaelCollins: nope Too much has to go wrong for him and far too much has to go right for others to catch him. Not only would it take Scottie to make mistakes, it would also take someone to play near perfect. Nobody will.
Nick Pietruszkiewicz: When he left the 13th green I would have said no chance. When he bogeyed in 14th place, I would still have said probably not. But the bogey on the par 5 15 and the last one makes this interesting. It’s no longer a Sunday coronation. Will he still win? I still think so, but it wasn’t a foregone conclusion when he walked away from Amen Corner on Saturday.
Tom Van Haaren: Scheffler is the fifth ranked world No. 1 player to hold the 54-hole lead at the Masters. Greg Norman is the only player in this statistic not to win when Norman led by 6 shots in 1996. Scheffler faltered a bit in the back nine on Saturday, but he doesn’t seem likely to lose given how he’s played all week.
If yes, who?
Schlabach: Again, I’d be surprised if anyone caught him, but I like Cameron Smith’s chances better than anyone else. He fired a 4-under 68 in the first and third rounds. The Australian hasn’t won a major championship yet, but he has made it to the Players Championship, which is as big as any tournament out there (especially when it comes to the purse). They’ll be in the final pairing together, and if Smith can put a few early risers on his scorecard, he can at least put some pressure on Scheffler.
Collin: Nobody.
Pietruszkiewicz: Smith is 3 shots behind and Sungjae Im is 5 behind. So you’re in the ball game. The one I still wouldn’t rule out is Shane Lowry. Seven shots in the hole is a lot, but wild things happen in these sections when the leaders turn home on the back nine. So, yes, Lowry still has a chance. But the best option is Smith.
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Van Haaren: Smith has shot 68 twice this week, so it doesn’t seem entirely out of the question that he can at least make it a challenge. The 74 he shot between those two rounds of 68 is a cause for concern, but considering how difficult the course has played, he’s spot on. Smith now has nine career rounds in the ’60s at Augusta, breaking a tie for most players in the last five Masters. So if there’s anyone Scheffler doesn’t want to pursue right now, it’s probably Smith.
Which hole does Scheffler have to survive to get a green jacket?
Schlabach: Is it the first holes? Scheffler edged out numbers 1 and 3 in the second round on Friday. If he stumbles early and Smith is able to put up some red numbers, things could get interesting. But Scheffler is so good on the green and his putter was hot so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t close the deal.
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Collin: #11 and 12. Get through two-thirds of Amen Corner at level or better and you can start sewing a new green jacket.
Pietruszkiewicz: It’s 12. It’s always 12. Find dry land. If the first one goes in Rae’s Creek, there’s no guarantee the next one – and the next one – won’t follow.
Van Haaren: I agree with Mark that it’s probably through the first few holes, but it also probably depends on how close it is on the back nine. He’s played 14th at 1 over and 18th at 1 over this week. So if he’s close to 14 or 18, maybe that’ll come to his mind later.
What do you expect from Tiger Woods’ final round of this Masters?
Schlabach: Tiger didn’t look very good after the third round. He admitted his back was strained in the cold conditions and he seemed to have a much more pronounced limp after the 18th game on Saturday. I don’t think he will retire. I think he has too much pride and is too competitive not to finish the tournament. I also think he will be highly motivated to get the ship back on track after a 6-over-78 on Saturday, his worst finish in 93 career rounds at Augusta National. He drove the ball well and was pretty good with his irons. It was just that his putting was awful. I think he will be better on Sunday.
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Collin: I expect Tiger to shoot around 75. I can’t imagine how exhausted he must be. I say that because you can’t generate adrenaline. Every day he had to deal with a crash he couldn’t prepare for. On Sunday it will be all about finding out how far away he is from the final strength he needs to win again.
Pietruszkiewicz: Survive. Just get through the day. The pain really showed itself by Saturday. With the weather forecast to be warmer, he should enjoy a stroll through Augusta National and revel in the achievement and hard work that has gotten him from where he was 14 months ago to where he will be on Sunday afternoon.
Van Haaren: I have to imagine this whole week catching up to him if it hasn’t already. I didn’t really know what to expect given that he’s 46 years old, had multiple injuries and surgeries and this is Augusta with hills all over the place. I’ll admit I was a bit optimistic after his 71 in the first round, but since then the scores have steadily increased. I know he’s a competitor, but as the body slows down, it slows down.
Which player was the biggest surprise this week?
Schlabach: It has to be former champions Danny Willett or Charl Schwartzel, right? Willett had missed the cut at the Masters in four of his last five starts. He has not had a top 20 finish on the tour since he finished 18th at the RBC Classic in March 2021. But he’s eighth after 54 holes. Schwartzel is number 172 in the world rankings and has missed the cut seven times in nine tours this season. He’s tied in fourth but probably won’t play a big role on Sunday. Still, their performances this week were totally unexpected.
Collin: black This man missed his last six cuts in a row! There may be many golfers who have used the term “I’m close”. But if Charl had used it, the answer would have been, “To what? The car on Friday?”
Pietruszkiewicz: I’m reluctant to agree, mostly on principle, but Schwartzel had nothing to do with being in the last group on Saturday given how he played in the months and weeks leading up to that. And he made it across the galaxy on Saturday but still got a reasonable score and stays in the mix – sort of.
Van Haaren: I agree with Schwarzel. I didn’t see that coming. Maybe I shouldn’t be more surprised, but I was also surprised by Cam Smith. He just keeps popping up at the top of the leaderboards and hasn’t faltered.
Who was the biggest disappointment?
Schlabach: Choose from: Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele or Bryson DeChambeau. They all missed the cut. At least DeChambeau is injured. Spieth is probably the biggest concern because his game seems to be out of joint again. The 12th hole at Augusta National still haunts him.
Collin: Koepka. For a man who wasn’t injured, he sure played like someone who was injured.
Pietruszkiewicz: Rory McIlroy. Sure he could go out on Sunday and shoot 67 or more and work his way into the top five, but he was never a factor in this tournament. And it seems like it keeps happening here. Maybe the place is in his head and will never leave him. But it remains amazing that he keeps coming here and can’t run away.
Van Haaren: I know DeChambeau hasn’t played much, but he was beaten by 63-year-old Larry Mize this week. I’ll ease up on DeChambeau though if he’s still struggling with his injury. I was also surprised by Koepka’s performance. I thought this might be a week where we see him break through again at a major. He had four top-10 finishes at majors in 2021 and now he has missed the cut six times this season.