Russia is preparing to formalize the annexation of the occupied Zaporiya, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts following the results of Tuesday’s September 28 annexation referendums. However, none of the affected Ukrainian oblasts are fully controlled by Russian forces. Clashes continue in the Kherson and Donetsk regions, and a counter-offensive is under way in Luhansk. The yellow and blue flag has always been flying in the capital of the Zaporizhia region of the same name.
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The front line is shifting, but according to franceinfo calculations, Russian forces would control around 14.8% of Ukraine’s territory – or 85,000 square meters, the equivalent of the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region – and 18.6% of annexed Crimea. By integrating the four oblasts into their current administrative borders, and not just the areas under Russian control, Moscow would claim 18% of Ukraine – the equivalent of Bulgaria or Iceland – and 23.5% including Crimea – the territory of Greece.
The eastern and southern regions are partially occupied by Russian forces. (ASTRID AMADIEU / FRANCEINFO)
Will future treaties apply to all Ukrainian administrative areas or to occupied areas? There is nothing rhetorical about this alternative – which opposes an extensive and minimal version – as it grapples with Russia’s future stance and the contours of its nuclear deterrent. The problem is that the Kremlin has offered few clues as to the self-proclaimed future contours of its federation. And this despite the urgent need to organize pseudo-referendums that are crucial for the future of the affected populations.
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After the referendum in Crimea, Russia was content to transfer the federal borders to the administrative borders of the Ukrainian provinces. In Donbass, of course, things are more complicated. “There is no precise answer to this point and both options remain possible, writes Russian political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann to franceinfo.” But in both cases the annexations will lead to the continuation of the war, not to its end.
At this stage, therefore, one must be content with simple oral explanations, binding only on their authors. “The referendums concern all areas within the administrative borders,” commented (in Russian) Vladimir Rogov, head of the occupation authorities of the Zaporijia region. Denis Pushilin, Donetsk’s pro-Russian leader, traveled to Moscow to settle what he calls the “legal issues” of the future annexation. “The entire constitutional area of the DPR will be liberated,” he added.
“But what does that mean? And is there a geographical description in their constitution?” Ekaterina Schulmann replies. This offers both options. “The territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic is defined by the borders that existed on the day of its establishment in 2014,” reads the text.
On February 21, Vladimir Putin also signed ambiguous decrees recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk. Article 7 of the respective treaties (here and there) only mentioned respect for the “territorial integrity and inviolability of existing borders” of Russia and the two occupied territories. The text does not specify any formal outlines.
The Ukrainian flag flies July 18, 2022 over the industrial town of Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, partially occupied by militias and the Russian military. (MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP)
“These texts do not seem to be particularly clear and the Senate president initially retained a minimal version,” analyzes geopolitician David Teurtrie, who was contacted by franceinfo. But the Kremlin corrected it and set itself the goal of conquering all two Donbass regions.” Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in February that the independence of these entities should be recognized within administrative boundaries. “Vladimir Putin has taken a position on this, and if he were to withdraw this goal, he would lose face.”
Note the comments made by Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday, who stated that the Russian “special operation” would continue until “the entire territory of the DPR within the borders of the Donetsk region is liberated”. For the two southern oblasts, with which no text has ever been signed, the situation is more confused, David Teurtrie continued. “The Russian army is doing its utmost to control the entire Kherson Oblast,” but “the front in Zaporiya is extremely stable.”
“You have to differentiate between the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donbass, where the Kremlin wants to control the existing borders, and the others, where there is probably more leeway.”
David Teurtrie, Associate Researcher at the Europes-Eurasia Research Center
at franceinfo
The annexation of the administrative areas would “still put the Kremlin in a strange position,” notes the Institute for the Study of War (in English), because it would then have to demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops, no matter how legitimate they may be, which they say accused will be on Russian territory. Vladimir Putin could be “in a humiliating position because he cannot enforce this request”. This comprehensive option could bring Ukrainian territories under the Russian deterrence doctrine. This provides for the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an “existential threatening aggression with conventional weapons”.
The issue of borders should probably be settled in the accession treaties of the four territories concerned. Anton Getta, deputy chairman of the Duma’s financial market commission, has already stated that there will be no borders or tariffs between these territories and Russia. At most simple checkpoints.
In addition, a new federal district could soon unite the four occupied territories and Crimea, the Russian business daily Vedomosti (in Russian) believes. However, according to this source, this mission could be entrusted to the former director general of the Roskosmos space agency, Dmitry Rogozin. Sergei Axionov, leader of the Russian occupation of Crimea, has already warned in the course of the referendums: Russia “will move from a special operation to liberate the territories to an anti-terrorist operation within its borders”.