- Andrei Illarionov, Putin’s former chief economic adviser, was interviewed by the BBC.
- He said Putin is likely to stop the war in Ukraine if the West stops buying Russian oil and gas.
- Many Western nations remain heavily dependent on Russian energy exports.
Loading Something is loading.
Vladimir Putin’s former chief economic adviser has suggested that Russia would halt military operations in Ukraine “within a month or two” if Western countries stopped buying Russian oil and gas.
In an interview with the BBC’s Talking Business program published on Sunday, Andrei Illarionov, who advised Putin between 2000 and 2005, said the president is likely to be reassured by an ongoing steady flow of energy export earnings, allowing him to continue the war.
Illarionov said that if Western countries impose “a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia,” then “Russian military operations in Ukraine are likely to be halted within a month or two.” He added: “It is one of the very effective tools that Western countries still have.”
Russia’s economy is expected to contract by up to 15% this year after western nations imposed sweeping sanctions and pulled companies out of the country in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
Illarionov predicted that Russia’s export prowess – particularly energy exports – would save it from complete economic annihilation.
Exports make up more than a quarter of Russia’s economy, with the country being a heavyweight exporter of oil, gas, precious metals and grains. The International Energy Agency estimates that Russia accounts for 45% of the European Union’s gas imports, and the bloc says it gets most of its oil from Russia.
Illarionov told the BBC: “One billion euros comes into Putin’s pockets every two and a half days. This is extremely helpful for Putin to keep his system running, to keep financing the war.”
Illarionov added: “Once this flow of money is cut off, Putin will have to reconsider his policies because he will not have many resources left to fund further aggression.”
EU countries have pledged to wean themselves off Russian energy, and the US has pledged to export more liquefied natural gas to bloc members. However, due to high oil and natural gas prices, Russia’s energy export earnings could increase by more than a third in 2022 compared to 2021, according to Bloomberg Economics.