It’s still early in the season, but the trends will firm up a bit and the discrepancies will become more apparent as we head into October. My best bets are 6-3 this season after going 3-0 last week, finally momentum in the right direction. Here are the week 4 matchups on my radar and subsequent picks this weekend.
Latest odds: Buffalo Bills -3
Josh Allen vs. Ravens secondary
Sunday’s QB matchup between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson should be an early MVP showcase. I hope they both continue to come up with video game numbers, but the Bills defense has played significantly better than the Ravens, whose defense problems have spilled over into 2022. I don’t think you can attribute Baltimore’s slump to injury anymore after giving up over 450 pass yards and six touchdown passes to Tua Tagovailoa while he blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter in Week 2. Here are some worrying numbers:
The Ravens are tied last in total defense this season
They are the only team to allow a 300-yard pass in every game
They’ve allowed five of the 18 400-yard passes and five more 30-yard TDs leaguewide since 2021 than any other team in that span
Let’s face it, that’s not your dad’s impenetrable Ravens defense. Ray Lewis is not going through that door anytime soon. I don’t trust any team against Josh Allen that has given up so many points, yards and big plays. This week Allen and his rocket arm could have a big day with his deep ball. He’s completed a whopping 70% (7-10) of his passes this season on shots 20+ yards down. That’s the best rate in the league. Guess which defense is the worst in the league on those deep passes? The Ravens. QBs are 10-15 (67%) 20-plus-yards downfield against them.
Choose: bills
Latest odds: Los Angeles Rams +1.5
Pressure from Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Rams
I’m surprised to see the 49ers being favored over the Rams on Monday Night Football, even though they’re at home and have thrown seizures at Los Angeles in recent years. San Francisco had won six straight games against the Rams before the 2021 NFC Championship game, in which they pulled out a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. That game was sealed by an interception by Jimmy Garoppolo when he was knocked down by Aaron Donald.
I’m expecting more of the latter on Monday, especially considering how Garoppolo and the 49ers looked in Denver and the loss of the league’s best tackle Trent Williams. Garoppolo leads the NFL with 10 interceptions when he’s been pressured since the start of last season (playoffs included), and they often come at awkward times, like his fourth-quarter interception against the Broncos in Week 3 — and the one mentioned above Election against the Rams.
San Francisco could address that disparity by engaging in ground play like they did against the Rams on Monday Night Football last year when they won 31-10 and ran the ball 44 times. I’m not expecting a repeat with Elijah Mitchell as the top running back and the way they wrote plays last week. The 49ers ran 37% of the time in Week 3 (23rd in the NFL) despite a close game in which their passing offense struggled.
Choose: Aries
Latest odds: Dallas Cowboys -3
Cowboys D-Line vs. Commanders O-Line
Perhaps the biggest mismatch of the week is the Cowboys’ pass rush against the Commanders’ offensive line. Beginning Week Four, the Cowboys led the NFL in sacks, and the Commanders were tied for most sacks allowed. Both have shown completely opposite performances in week 3. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones five times Monday night and pressured him 22 times. Carson Wentz was released a career-high nine times against the Eagles.
ESPN’s pass blocking metrics provide insight into how big the gap is between these units. The Cowboys rank fourth in Pass Rush Win Rate, which measures the number of times at least one player breaks through on their line in 2.5 seconds. The Commanders have the 5th worst pass block win rate in the league. In other words, the Cowboys’ pass rush should wreak havoc again. With Cooper Rush holding without Dak Prescott, I expect Dallas’ pass rush to make the difference on Sunday.
Choose: cowboys