Almost 150 million Brazilians are called on Sunday to elect the new president, 27 of the 81 senators, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 27 state governors of the country. The most anticipated election is the presidential one, with two main candidates: outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro (far right) and former left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In the event that none of the candidates reach 50 percent in the first round on Sunday, a runoff will take place on October 30.
The two candidates have very different personal histories and political aspirations: they represent very distant communities and visions of Brazil’s future, and for this reason have created a very tense election campaign, appearing under the ostentatious colors of the Brazilian flag (yellow and green) and the ubiquitous anthems of the candidates was also marked by episodes of violence.
Lula, president between 2003 and 2007, returned and eligible after the 2017 corruption conviction was overturned, is the favorite in the polls, some 10 percentage points ahead of Bolsonaro. The contest originally had eleven candidates: some withdrew during the campaign and none seemed able to perturb the two main candidates, with Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet the other two most popular and both centrists well under 10 percent of voting intentions.
The Brazilian constitution, promulgated on October 5, 1988 after the end of the long military dictatorship (1964-1984), stipulates that the country is a federal presidential republic: the president exercises executive power and is the head of government. The contextuality of the election of at least one branch of Parliament that holds the legislature means that the President, through his own party, often controls legislative action more or less directly.
Jair Bolsonaro, who took office in January 2019 after 27 years as Rio de Janeiro State MP, has played the role, centralizing many powers, often replacing members of his government who were underaligned, and bringing Brazilian democracy to a so-called Doom subdued “Strong Stress”. In this election, there are fears that the outgoing president, who has long criticized the electoral system and denounced fraud, may not respect the outcome of the vote, in a stance similar to Donald Trump’s in the United States after Joe Biden’s victory.
Much of Bolsonaro’s election campaign was geared towards denouncing possible fraud and demonizing the opponent: Lula was sometimes called a “thief”, sometimes a “communist”, sometimes a threat to Brazilian creeds.
Bolsonaro then reiterated the themes of his successful 2018 campaign: strong social conservatism, attention to security, defense of traditional Christian values, bellicose rhetoric against minority claims, and alleged “gender ideology”. During his four-year tenure, Bolsonaro cut taxes on the wealthiest, reformed pensions, eased access to guns, and slashed budgets for protecting the environment, particularly the Amazon rainforest. A former army captain, he filled many of the key positions in his government with generals and veterans.
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His presidency was marked by numerous corruption scandals and ongoing controversies, adding to the already severe polarization of Brazilian society. Bolsonaro has been very questionable and controversial about the pandemic that has killed 685,000 Brazilians (fourth deadliest in the world): he has been accused of openly underestimating the dangers, recommending unscientific solutions, changing four health ministers and being skeptical about vaccines (it is one of the few). unvaccinated world market leader).
Jair Bolsonaro, incumbent president, elected with the Liberal Party (AP Photo / Marcelo Chello)
Lula’s return to the stage has been greeted with relief by Bolsonaro’s many critics, particularly as the former president is seen as popular enough to rally the various components of the opposition. This will be Lula’s sixth presidential election, 40 years after her first loss.
Lula is 77 years old and has a very long political history, but before the scandals and trials he was also a very popular president. At the end of his term in 2010, his approval rating was 83 percent.
His presidencies, in a period of strong economic growth in Brazil, were marked by strong and effective interventions in the fight against poverty and hunger in the poorest groups, thanks to programs of social funds and direct economic support such as “Bolsa Familia” and “Fome Null”.
Today, this policy of helping the poorest through direct appropriations of funds (which critics saw as populist) has also been adopted by rival Bolsonaro to boost his popularity with an electorate loyal to the Lula Labor Party, while the latter made changes to the themes of his campaign.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Labor Party candidate (AP Photo / Bruna Prado)
In an attempt to lure a more conservative electorate, Lula elected vice-president Geraldo Alckmin, former 12-year governor of the state of Sao Paulo, a fervent Catholic close to Opus Dei and his opponent in the 2006 elections when he was a candidate for the right. With this election, Lula’s candidacy aspires to become a “democratic front” response to Bolsonaro’s authoritarian threat, as evidenced by the coveted and voiced support of eight different former presidential candidates.
During the election campaign, Lula said he wanted to increase funding for social programs and public bank financing interventions, make government spending and deficit limits more flexible, invest again in tax programs, and protect the environment in the Amazon, particularly in suppressing illegal deforestation activities. Other proposals concern the state’s buyback of some oil refineries sold to Petrobras (a Brazilian private oil company), but also the exit from diplomatic isolation and the restoration of relations in the region: the victories of Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia could create a progressive alliance in South America that Lula’s Brazil would like to lead.
– Also read: What is the story of Lula
According to polls, the problems that voters feel the most are the economic ones: the international situation and the cash injections to support the Brazilian economy after the acute phase of the pandemic have led to a significant increase in inflation, which is causing difficulties. especially the poorest. In the interests of voters, social issues such as the fight against hunger and poverty, public health and the fight against corruption follow.
One of his strengths is the staunch support of the less affluent sections of the population (which are also the most numerous), particularly in the north-east of the country, where he was born and worked first as a trade unionist and then as a politician. This is also the only region where Bolsonaro didn’t win in 2018, strong in the southern states and especially in São Paulo.
During the campaign, Lula tried to get closer to the growing Evangelical constituency: In Brazil, the Pentecostal Evangelical Church is growing rapidly, is the denomination of about 30 percent of the population and is usually inspired by a very conservative political vision. Indeed, evangelicals are one of the strong components of the outgoing president’s constituency, who in 2019 entrusted the family and human rights ministry to Pastor Damares Alves, who champions homophobic and anti-abortion positions.
Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has a problem with the female electorate, which makes up 52 percent of the total number: the president’s openly misogynistic positions and a declining understanding of women’s roles have angered a large proportion of voters female electorate: Today, 51 percent of women state in the polls that that they support Lula, compared to 29 percent in favor of Bolsonaro.
Participation in elections is compulsory in Brazil and voter turnout was 80 percent in 2018. Also on Sunday will be the governors (possible elections are foreseen) and 513 MPs and 27 senators who may have special funds for their states. The composition of Parliament is fundamental to any President-elect, as illustrated by the 2016 ouster of President Dilma Rousseff: the impeachment process began in the Chamber of Deputies over allegations of falsifying budget deficit data (an allegation two years later proved false). ).
In recent polls, preferences for the “minor” candidates Gomes and Tebet appear to be leveling off in favor of the two main candidates, increasing Lula’s chances of being elected in the first round: pollsters have increased the likelihood of that outcome from 15 to 30 percent. Such a victory would make it more difficult for Bolsonaro to question the legitimacy of the voting process.