- After the fake referendums in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of four regions.
- In a celebratory speech at the Kremlin, he lashed out at the West and again threatened to use nuclear weapons.
- Many of the claims were already known, but one expert recognizes a new quality on two points.
This text contains a classification of current events, which, in addition to data and facts, also includes assessments by Marie Illner and, if necessary, by experts. Know the different types of journalistic texts.
In a ceremony, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. Russian state television broadcast how the regions’ admission contracts were signed.
In a nearly 40-minute speech, Putin declared occupied Ukrainian territory Russian territory and made serious accusations against the West. Previously, mock referendums had been held in the four areas. “The people made their choice, their clear choice,” Putin said. The votes were neither free, nor secret, nor equal, observers reported that residents of the occupied territories were forced to vote.
Read too: All current information about the war in Ukraine on the live ticker
Putin: Russia will defend the area “by all means”.
Putin spoke of a “common destiny” and a “thousand-year history”. The spiritual connection has been passed down from generation to generation, people see themselves as part of Russia. “Our parents and grandparents fought here during the Great Patriotic War (the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany in World War II 1941-1945) until their heroic deaths,” he recalled.
Throughout history, Russia has been “dismembered” and annexation would restore the country’s historic unity. “An attempt was made to generate hatred in these people against Russia,” he said. They were threatened with repression. “They will become our Russian citizens,” he emphasized in front of hundreds of guests.
He urged Kyiv to “stop fighting immediately” and respect the decision. “Russia will defend its territory with all the means at its disposal,” Putin announced. Schools, theaters, hospitals and museums will be rebuilt and the pension system restored. People in the captured areas would feel the “support of all Russia,” Putin said.
hate speech against the West
He also distributed massively against the West and the US. It is a “neocolonial system” and the West is plundering the rest of the world through “dollar power”. Putin said: “After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West decided that all people must submit to its dictates.” The West would only pursue selfish goals. Despite this dictate, Russia regained strength.
“The West thinks it will get away with it,” Putin threatened. But Russia cannot be taken for a fool. The rules of the West are “beasts”. “The US does not want sovereign states and cultures,” Putin said. They wanted the “de-industrialization” of Europe.
Putin also spoke of chemical weapons allegedly made in Ukraine. “The US is using the war in Ukraine for its own benefit,” the Russian president said, urging Russia to “turn the tide of history.” “We are on a battleground for our people, the great historic Russia,” Putin said.
Expert: “Conspicuous degree of absurdity”
In a provocative tone, Putin added: “You need food and energy, not printed dollars and euros.” In the West, politicians would ask people to eat less and wash less. “You can’t heat houses with lies,” he warned. Also, in Russia they don’t want a “gender ideology” like in the West, where instead of father and mother there are “fathers 1, 2 and 3”.
Russia expert Alexander Dubovy also closely followed Putin’s speech and subsequent commemorations. “In terms of content, we haven’t heard anything fundamentally new. Basically, similar statements from Putin have been with us for more than seven months, and in some cases much longer,” says Dubowy.
What caught my attention, however, was the degree of absurdity and abstrusion. “The speech completely lacked a common thread,” he says. In fact, Putin was to be expected to talk about the annexed areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia and about the progress of the war in Ukraine. “But that was nothing more than just a side note. The main part was dedicated exclusively to the West,” says Dubowy.
At the forefront of the global non-west
We suspected it before, but now we are sure: “Putin sees the war in Ukraine as a struggle against the collective West and sees Russia at the forefront of the non-Western global world”, analyzes the expert. Putin was aware that the whole world was watching his speech.
Between the lines, Dubowy reads: “Putin is trying to maneuver tactically and expects the West to start forcing Ukraine to negotiate.” Currently, Moscow has only partial control over the occupied territories. “The war in Ukraine is far from over. More conquests would have to be made to gain control of the claimed territory,” emphasizes Dubowy.
Another nuclear weapons threat
Putin has asked Ukraine to return to the negotiating table, but does not want to talk about the four annexed areas. “He started a political escalation. It remains to be seen to what extent this will lead to a military escalation. The mobilization is not at all successful”, says the expert. So far, the Russian army leadership has barely managed to properly train and equip the deployed soldiers.
Dubowy believes the danger of using nuclear weapons remains low. Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons since February 24. In his recent speech, he smugly pointed out that the US set a precedent by using nuclear weapons against Japan in World War II, but Dubowy believes this has no impact on the current situation.
“The US did not use nuclear weapons yesterday, it used them many decades ago. Therefore, Putin’s statements are not a reaction to something new, but simply another threat designed to scare the West,” says Dubowy. After all, Putin always found a reason to talk about attacks or threats to his national territory, which would justify the use of nuclear weapons.
Russia expert: “People are getting more restless”
“Putin needs no precedent for the use of nuclear weapons, especially lesser tactical nuclear weapons. He can interpret any action by the West as an unforgivable transgression of borders”, recalls the expert. However, using nuclear weapons for Russia is not that easy. “There are legal and factual requirements for this,” emphasizes Dubowy.
Legally, it is clear that the Russian president decides on the use of nuclear weapons. “He decides whether there is a threat to Russia’s existence,” he says. At the same time, however, a factual decision by the elite is needed. “Members of the government, the Security Council, the presidential administration and the business elite must decide together that nuclear weapons really should be used,” explains Dubowy.
At the moment, this is hardly imaginable. “The Russian economy is getting worse and worse, people are getting more and more restless. A conflict with the elites is pretty much the last thing Putin needs right now,” he notes.
Conflicts and disagreements in Russian elites?
Recently, contradictory statements have been heard from Russia on the use of nuclear weapons. “For example, the defense minister has stated that Russia cannot and must not use nuclear weapons in a conventional military conflict, but that a first strike from another state is necessary,” says Dubowy.
Russian nuclear doctrine, however, makes different statements here: “Thus, nuclear weapons can also be used against non-nuclear powers if the president decides to do so,” says Dubowy. In addition to these prerequisites, however, he considers the mere fact that a Russian minister directly responsible for the war said this as a sign of discord and disputes between the elites.
“Putin didn’t give a very self-confident impression today. He seemed like someone who maneuvers tactically and doesn’t want to compromise”, analyzes the expert. This was probably also the reason why Putin spoke only superficially about Ukraine.
“Many questions are left unanswered here,” comments Dubowy. For example, within what limits should annexed areas be included in the Russian Federation. “Within the region actually controlled or within the entire Ukrainian region? That’s a significant difference,” says Dubovy.
What should the West do now?
The expert recommends that the West avoid any change in behavior. “We decided on sanctions and we must comply with them now. If this path has already been chosen, it must be followed and new sanctions imposed”, he says.
Moscow is currently counting on the West’s surrender. This satisfaction should not be granted to Putin. Even if the next few months are difficult for Western societies, freedom never comes for free, Dubowy said.
Arrived at ethnic nationalism
For Dubowy, the speech and the celebrations that followed brought out another aspect: “Russia arrived in the midst of ethnic nationalism.” Putin is counting on Russian ethnonationalists – the people who spoke at the celebrations testify to this troubling development. “It was still unimaginable at the beginning of the year,” says Dubowy.
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Russian pop singer Shaman, who sang the state anthem, is very popular with nationalists. With the song “I’m a Russian”, he recently catapulted himself into the hearts of nationalist Russians. Russian actor, media star, Orthodox priest and amateur politician Ivan Okhlobystin also delivered a speech. “He is anti-liberal, anti-Western, arch-conservative, homophobic and has called for a ‘holy war’ to be declared against Ukraine and the West,” says Dubowy. In January 2022, it was absolutely unimaginable that Putin would appear on stage with such a person.
About the expert: Dr Alexander Dubowy is a political analyst and expert on Eastern Europe and Russia. He studied law, economics and political science in Vienna and Moscow. He conducts research on international relations and security policy with a focus on Eastern Europe, Russia and the CIS region.
Updated on 02/10/2022 at 16:25
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