The International Energy Agency is warning Europe of the consequences of a potential full shutdown of Russian gas starting this winter and into next year.
Gas-saving measures in Europe will be “crucial” this winter to keep stocks at sufficient levels in the event of a full Russian gas shutdown and a “late cold spell,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) stressed in its quarterly report on Monday.
The running-off of Russian gas in response to the sanctions imposed on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine has caused prices to skyrocket on world markets, prompting Europeans to source alternative sources and import gas on a large scale. LNG), especially American and Norwegian gas. Thanks to this diversification strategy, “gas stocks were almost 90% full at the end of September,” said the Paris-based IEA, while warning Europe of the consequences of a possible total shutdown starting this winter and next year Russian gas.
A reduction of around 9%
In its report, the agency has therefore prepared winter forecasts for these stocks “in the event of a complete halt to Russian supplies from November 1” and depending on the supply of LNG, a resource that is now the subject of “global competition”. “In the absence of a reduction in gas demand and a complete disruption of Russian supplies, storage in February would be less than 20% full with high LNG supply” and “nearly 5% with low LNG supply,” warns the IEA A depletion of stocks at such levels “would increase the risk of a supply disruption in the event of a late cold snap,” stresses the OECD Energy Agency in its press release.To avert this scenario, the IEA says Europe needs to adopt “crucial” austerity measures, to “keep stocks at reasonable levels until the end of the heating season”.
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According to their forecasts, a reduction in European winter gas demand of the order of 9% compared to the average over the past five years “would be required to maintain these stockpiles above 25% with lower LNG inflows”. And that demand would need to drop 13% from that five-year average “to keep storage levels above 33%” in the event of low LNG supply.
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