Clashes, arrests, a cop being chased by a group of angry women, and a father blowing himself up with a recruiter. These are just some of the scenes circulating on social media that tell of the growing discontent that the Russian President has called for “partial mobilization”. Wladimir Putin caused during the Russiaspecifically in Chechnya and Dagestanthe two regions that have already paid the greatest tribute in men to the Tsar’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Minorities and Putin’s strategy
Since the beginning of the invasion, international analysts have highlighted that the soldiers sent to the front lines by Putin came largely from the poorest rural regions, where resistance to mobilization would have been less, or in any case less visible outside the borders of the Federation. A strategy that works with the “partial mobilization“Launched 21st September but now in danger of boomeranging.
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The protests are particularly violent in Dagestan, a Muslim-majority region bordering Azerbaijan that had a death toll more than 10 times that of the Moscow region, according to BBC estimates. “Our children are not fertilizer,” shout the region’s women, who are protesting the agents who are recruiting their children and husbands to send them to the front lines. “It wasn’t Ukraine that attacked Russia. We were the ones who went to them,” shouted the demonstrators, pointing to the now irreparable flaws in the narrative of Russian propaganda that wants to stage the war Ukraine as a defensive action. “Mistakes have been made. Partial mobilization must be carried out only according to the criteria announced by the President, ”Dagestan Governor Sergei Melikov was forced to admit on Telegram. The President of Ukraine also addressed Dagestan residents and other minorities on Twitter Zelensky: “The Dagestanis should not die in Ukraine,” he said under the monument to Imam Shamil, the hero of Dagestan who fought against the Russians. «Chechens, Ingushets, Ossetians, Circassians. You know who is sending you to Ukraine,” he said, turning to the other Russian minorities and trying to exploit the dissatisfaction.
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Situation not much different in neighboring Chechnya, controlled by Razman Kadyrov, one of the Kremlin super-hawks who recently invoked the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and boasted about sending his teenage children to the front lines. However, the Chechen leader also has to face popular dissatisfaction, and two weeks ago he publicly stated this Chechnya He had already provided Moscow with 254% of the men earmarked for partial mobilization, an implicit request for Moscow not to ask for more.
The possible consequences of mobilization
“In undemocratic systems there are signs that take the place of elections. The protest against unpopular measures, in Chechnya as in Theran, marks a distance from official positions,” he comments Gregory Alegi, Professor of International Relations at Luiss University. According to some observers such as Paul Goeble by the US State Department, quoted by Yahoo News, these protests could reignite feelings of independence that had been bloodied in those regions. In Chechnya, Putin first demonstrated his brutality by leveling Grozny shortly after taking office in 1999. However, according to Alegi, it is not only the border that is at risk, but Russia’s international role, especially that within Russia. Collective agreement security organization (the military alliance that also includes Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan). «These alliances are based on a strong partner who can intervene in moments of tension. We have seen that Russia is not able to do this, on the contrary, it creates problems itself ».
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However, for Putin, mobilization is primarily a domestic problem. Contrary to the press releases, which envisaged mobilizing only those who were on the reserve lists and already had combat experience, the recruitment is indiscriminate and the men are sent to the without training sent front. «The management of the mobilization lies between the useless and the amateurish. Like this it has no military effect», explains Alegi, who then elaborates on Putin’s strategy: «Urban centers are always politically sensitive and we tried not to touch them, so the weight of the mobilization fell on the provinces. But now the campaigns are saying, “Enough. We have already given “». These are signs that, if not understood in time, they can lead to aggravation of social tensions, and it is likely that concessions will soon be demanded in return. “The compensation could be political rather than territorial, for example a more prominent role for a leader like Kadyrov.” Far from striving for a change of strategy, the tsar’s path could lead in the direction of conspiracy propaganda: “The temptation of undemocratic systems is not to read these signals,” says Alegi. “It’s easy, as in Iranthe blame will be shifted to some phantom jammers from the United States ».
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