In Russia he is a hero, in the West he is on the sanctions list. Alexander Dvornikov is 61 years old and when he wears his military uniform there is a lot of weight hanging from his chest. The Russian general from Ussuriysk in the Far East near the Chinese border has received many medals over the decades in the Russian military. President Vladimir Putin painted his most important star on March 17, 2016: the “Golden Star of the Hero of Russia”. Ukraine now fears this man.
Dvornikov was given supreme command of Russian troops in Ukraine over the weekend. At least that’s what the US government and some Russian media reports, but initially there was no official confirmation from Moscow about the personnel. This does not bode well for Ukraine. Around the turn of the millennium, in the second Chechen war – officially called the “anti-terrorist operation” in Russia – Dvornikov led a regiment that took part in the assault on the capital Grozny. A decade and a half later, in September 2015, he was the first commander of Russian troops in their infamous operation in Syria. More recently, he was head of Russia’s Southern Military District, which, in addition to the Russian North Caucasus, also includes the Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea.
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In Syria, Dwornikov was instrumental in turning the tide of dictator Bashar al-Assad. From a Russian perspective, his record looks like this: more than 9,000 air missions, more than 400 “liberated settlements”. For the US government, however, his command in Syria shows what Ukrainians may face in the near future. National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Dvornikov’s appointment was “a sign that Russia will continue its scorched earth policy”.
Former US general Mark Hertling said in an interview with CNN that he “ran this type of campaign in Chechnya and Syria that led to a massive amount of attacks on civilians and the destruction of civilian infrastructure”. Hospitals would have been hit by the bombings. In the US, Dwornikov was also nicknamed the “Butcher of Syria”. For Hertling, it’s clear why the Kremlin named the general as military leader for Ukraine: it wants to urge Dvornikov to achieve success by May 9, he said.
May 9 is the most important holiday of the year in Russia: Victory Day, when victory over Nazi Germany is celebrated with a military parade on Red Square and many private celebrations. For Kremlin chief Putin, this would be an opportunity to present the current successes in Ukraine to the population from a Russian point of view. However, May 9 and, a few years ago, May 8 are also days of victory and remembrance for Ukrainians.
Klitschkos believe a new attack on Kiev is possible
The Ukrainian leadership fears that the Russian armed forces are regrouping and preparing a full-scale attack – likely in the next few days. Satellite images from private company Maxar Technologies on Sunday show a Russian military convoy some 13 kilometers long heading towards Donbass. About a week ago, after unsuccessful attempts at conquest, Russia withdrew its troops from the Kiev region. Moscow then declared that it would focus on eastern Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Russia will launch a battle involving thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and fighter jets in Donbass. To defend itself, Ukraine will continue to receive weapons from the United States, US national security adviser Sullivan told CNN on Sunday. During a visit to Kiev, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised 120 more armored vehicles, as well as anti-ship missiles.
Kharkiv, a city of more than a million people in eastern Ukraine, is also particularly at risk from further Russian attacks. But the Klitschko brothers, of whom Vitali Klitschko, as mayor of Kiev, organizes the local resistance, are also preparing for something else. Both think it is possible that Russia will try again to attack the Ukrainian capital and “take it in two days”. Wladimir Klitschko even said that this is exactly what he expects. In doing so, he presumably relied on corresponding assessments by Ukrainian Brigadier General Alexander Gruzewitsch. After the withdrawal of Russian troops, the Klitschko brothers expressly warned residents of the capital who had fled not to return. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also said on Monday that it was still too early to say “that we have definitely won the battle for Kiev”.
However, Russia’s attempts to conquer areas in the east and south are considered much more likely. Dwornikov, as the new commander, will likely play a decisive role in this. The Kyiv Post newspaper reported that attempts at rapid and large-scale conquest in Ukraine failed because there was a lack of central command structures and because there was poor coordination between the various army units. Now, with a new major attack under Dvornikov’s leadership, Ukraine must be forced to give up so Russia can dictate the terms of a peace deal – in time for May 9. At least, that’s what Ukraine is preparing for. And get ready.