“Putin has already decided to use nuclear weapons.” That’s what the Russian political scientist says in a video published by the British newspaper Daily Mirror Valery Solovey, after which the Kremlin leader is dying and wants to take the world with him. The from Putin terminally ill is a rhetoric that has surfaced numerous times since the invasion beganUkraine on February 24th and so many times it has been denied by Western intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA. “He’s doing all too well,” CIA chief Wialliam Burns had said in the past few weeks. However, according to Solovey, there is a decision by the Russian Orthodox Church to call a special day of prayer for Saturday October 8, the day after the tsar’s 70th birthday, to support the idea that Putin is seriously ill. If the rumors were true, it would mean that the Russian president could really be willing to do anything to avoid defeat.
MORE INFORMATION
The situation on site
Ukrainians are gaining ground in the south and north-east. The advance of the Kiev army has repeatedly prompted the Kremlin chief to revise the statements on the goals, which initially envisaged a regime change in Kyiv, then only the “defense” and “liberation” of the Donbass. If the counter-offensive continued at this rate, Putin could soon find himself in a situation where he would no longer have any victory to claim, which would result in his total defeat on the home front as well. With his back to the wall, the tsar still has two options: The first is already implemented with the “partial” mobilization ordered on 21.09. But the regime’s bureaucratic slowness means it’s moving slowly, not to mention the wave of popular discontent it’s unleashing across the country, with hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing across the border to avoid conscription. Even if the Kremlin managed to improve its organization, the mobilization would not have a noticeable impact on the ground in the short term: in order to make a concrete contribution to the war, the recruited men would have to receive months of training. Instead, it appears that thousands are already on the Ukrainian front lines, but sent into battle they are easy prey for the Ukrainian army to kill or capture.
Nuclear war, what is the Armageddon quoted by Biden? And why did you remember the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962? The Scenarios
Putin would therefore be ready to examine the only remaining option: nuclear weapons, with all the doubts and risks that this entails. “Putin is not joking about the atomic bomb, we are closer to nuclear Armageddon than to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis,” declared the American President. Joe Biden. Corresponding CIA There are no indications that Moscow is prepared to use weapons of mass destruction, an assessment that political scientist Francesco Sisci agrees with: «Putin is dangerous, but he is a calculator of the risk-benefit ratio. In addition, to activate the atomic bomb, controls by the generals are also required: even if Putin wanted to commit suicide with the whole world, they do not necessarily want to do the same ».
There are also doubts about the material feasibility of the operation. The most concrete risk is that the Russia you use tactical nuclear weapons, so with a reduced range: the question analysts are asking is whether it would be just a demonstration test at the border or a real launch on Ukrainian territory. In no case would its implementation be as simple as it seems in words: dropping a bomb too close to the front line would risk dragging the Russian army into the consequences, which is not considered possible at the organizational level, given the difficulties identified so far on one nuclear battlefield. This is without taking into account the angry reaction that would be deployed by the Born. “Even if you throw it away from the front, for example in Lviv, there would be the problem of nuclear fallout, which would spread to other countries, including those that are not hostile to Russia, such as Hungary,” comments Sisci. “The tactical nuclear weapon has never been deployed and represents an unknown factor, but I don’t think we’re close to that decision.”
The magic circle creaks
Even assuming Putin drops his warnings, the stance of the Russian establishment is unknown. Analysts close to the Kremlin had been telling the Daily Mirror in recent days that the Russian elite would be ready to sack Putin if he chose to do so, but according to Solovey this is a vain hope. “Have no illusions,” he said, “these people have resigned themselves to Putin taking this first step.”
Putin, the flight of two Russians to Alaska: They crossed the Bering Strait by boat
Resignation or not, there is movement in sight in the Tsar’s “magic circle”. Immediately after the start of partial mobilization, Putin has very loyal Chechen leaders Razman Kadyrov, had been very critical of the situation on the ground and, for his part, had called for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Kremlin had denied rumors of a nuclear escalation, but Kadyrov was recently promoted to the rank of colonel-general to bring it in line with the leader’s positions. The name you bet on for the possible heist is instead that of Yevgeny Prigozhinfinancier of Society of Wagner Mercenaries, which plays an important role in military operations. The group announced yesterday the formation of its own telegram channel, Peacekeeperto share uncensored footage from the battlefields. According to the daily report of the American think tank Institute for the Study of War, the decision serves to give Prigozhin his own official voice in the Russian information space, which will compete with Kadyrov and the war correspondents, for whom Putin is increasingly fighting at her side. Such a resource would be very useful to begin spreading messages that capitalize on the already widespread popular discontent in a Russia gripped by Western sanctions and frightened by the mass call to arms.